The consistent Hearts recruitment approach

Heart of Midlothian head coach Steven Naismith recently gave his view on recruitment. A view that is echoed throughout football. Speak to those involved who possess extensive experience or have immersed themselves in this area of the sport, or those with strong strategies and robust processes in place, and it can still be boiled down to a coin flip. 50/50.

On the supporter side, it is an area that provokes so much scrutiny and intrigue. Every summer. Every January. There is an insatiable appetite amongst fans for any rumour, bit of speculation or transfer tidbit. Football Manager has played a part but it has been amplified by Sky Sports News, yellow ties and deadline day. That amplification has been taken on and turned even louder by social media and so-called transfer experts. As detailed in one enlightening Twitter thread from 2020, which is still relevant today, it is the best example of fake news.

READ MORE: Steven Naismith: Hearts recruitment role, squad evaluation and 4 transfer categories

'Unique and chaotic'

When a player does sign there is a rush of excitement that is followed by sweeping judgements, good or bad. Whether it be one performance or a handful of performances. Context can go amiss and fans may not comprehend the different variables that could or should be taken into account. They want to turn up on a Saturday, watch the team and then offer an assessment that is black or white which is completely understandable.

Supporters will have a variety of views on the summer window just past, but it is not possible to make a definitive evaluation. Hearts Standard spoke to individuals with experience in recruitment in Scottish football to shed some light on how transfers are judged, what is taken into consideration and the variables at play. One expressed the difficulty of recruiting into Scotland because the style is generally "unique and chaotic". 

Another said: "Something I always think gets overlooked is the human element. That person will take however many months to adapt."

After all, teams up and down the country, across the continent and further afield, can do all the homework they want on an individual. They can possess all the stats, watch the player numerous times and speak to those who have coached and played with him to get character references. But sometimes, even with all that due diligence, it just doesn't work out.

4 out of 10

A few years ago, sportswriter and author Paul Tomkins, after analysing thousands of deals done in the English Premier League, reasoned that 40 per cent of transfers are a success. 

One of those Hearts Standard spoke to said in "normal circumstances" four out of 10 are successful within a year. It rises to six out of 10 within two years. Just because one signing isn't a huge success in his first year doesn't mean that will remain the case across the length of his contract. And vice versa.

"When you are judging successful transfers you need to give it 18 months, or three windows," it was noted. "The team could still be rebuilding."

Take a few players signed last season as an example and how their evaluation has evolved. Alan Forrest has gone from a decent to a good signing. Zander Clark, having been brought in as backup to Craig Gordon, has, in hindsight, been a valuable recruit. Lawrence Shankland is now an unbelievable signing as opposed to an excellent one. It can work the other way too. There are many variables at play. Formations can change. Style can change. Managers can change. Teammates can change. Yutaro Oda, for example, has not kicked on from a strong end to last season but his minutes have been somewhat limited across the past couple of months with Naismith not tending to play wingers.

READ MORE: How recruitment works at Hearts - transfer process, missed targets, scouting markets

"How many signings hit the ground running on day one? Very few," Hearts Standard was told. "It normally takes players three or four months to adapt to playing in a new country, under new coaches, with new teammates, new styles. You probably have 20 games before you can accurately assess if a player is playing well."

In the short term, the assessment of signings is an ever-evolving evaluation process. Fans will have their view on those brought in during the summer. Frankie Kent has been one of the best recruits in the Premiership. Alex Lowry, Calem Nieuwenhof and Kenneth Vargas have had their moments in maroon but have not reached the levels of Kent consistently. Odel Offiah has not worked out and Kyosuke Tagawa has, as Naismith has said, not shown enough of what everyone wants just yet.

'Time is the biggest commodity'

The 'just yet' is important. Looking at those signed in the summer, both Tagawa and Nieuwenhof are on long-term deals so time should be on their side, while Vargas is a 'try before you buy' deal.

"Time is the biggest commodity in football," one of those involved with a Premiership club told Hearts Standard.

Naismith has spoken about that before when outlining his beliefs about recruitment. He is keen for the club to get to a place where some of those signed are not required to make an immediate impact. Instead, they can take time in the background to adapt and settle in. That arrives with squad continuity. The Hearts head coach wants "to go away from the constantly changing players".

READ MORE: How Steven Naismith helped Kye Rowles rediscover his defensive mojo

He said: "To be able to do that here, part of that is having a squad that 90 per cent of them stay and carry on that work. That next year 10 more per cent might move on but the ones you have bumped up with are carrying it on. It becomes less work, it becomes more efficient, it becomes the case that you are refining small details."

One thing clubs will assess when looking at the success of signings is game time. Have they provided value for money in terms of minutes on the pitch compared to what was expected of them? Kent, Vargas and Nieuwenhof are in the top eight for minutes played this season. Now, of course, personal preference will come into it, certainly with fans, who may feel player X would have been better getting that game time than player Y. But there have been contributions.

Consistent transfer approach

In conversations, the club's transfer strategy across the last few seasons was noted.

“With Hearts, there is an element of consistency with their approach," Hearts Standard by a recruitment analyst. "If you look at the last few windows and the average age of players they are bringing in, it has tended to be players between the ages of 19 up to 23 and scattered with one or two players who are a little bit more experienced like this season with Frankie Kent.”

The club have largely looked to recruit potential as well as players who are in or just entering their prime years. Across the last three seasons, 21 players have been signed permanently - Vargas is included with Hearts having an option to buy him - with an average age of 23.9. Only one outfield player has arrived over the age of 30 - Robert Snodgrass who has announced his retirement on Monday - with a handful of those between 26 and 28 at the time of signing. 

READ MORE: Lawrence Shankland's Hearts value far outweighs what clubs will be willing to pay

There has also been a balance of the types of players signed. There are those who have experience in the Scottish Premiership (Shankland, McKay, Forrest and Clark), players from England who generally settle quicker (Kent and Cochrane), talent from overseas who have a good profile, ie young and around or on the cusp of their country's national team (Oda, Vargas, Devlin, Rowles, Atkinson, Tagawa) and then there is also Lewis Neilson who straddles the first and third category.

On the face of it, it has been a consistent strategy which has resulted in consistency. Take the club's position on this day across the past three years. Hearts currently sit third in the Scottish Premiership on 36 points after 21 games and hold a five-point lead over fourth. Last year, Hearts sat third on 35 points after 21 games and had a four-point lead. In 2022, the team had 36 points after 20 games and held a five-point lead.

If Hearts can continue their pre-winter break form and wrap up third place for the second time in three seasons it will show that the club have got a good handle on an area that Naismith has labelled "one of the hardest things to do" in football and built a strong squad for the Scottish Premiership.