Why the contrast between Hearts home and away form

It is also a great opportunity to tackle one of the areas that the team may view as one in need of improvement. Results at Tynecastle Park. The current record in league games in Gorgie reads as played 10, won four, drawn three and lost three. Points have been dropped to Kilmarnock, Motherwell and Ross County as well as Hibs. For context, in the past two campaigns, there have been 12 and 11 victories in Gorgie.

It is contrasted with a very impressive return on the team's travels. Hearts have won seven of their 11 fixtures. The improvement the team has made outside of EH11 has been noted in great detail. The team are on course to record the club's best away performance in the top flight in more than 30 years.

It is an unusual situation for Hearts fans to experience. Only once since the 1991/92 season have the team won more away games than home games in a top-flight campaign. 

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What has changed?

The biggest change at Tynecastle Park is in the final third. Hearts are scoring, on average, fewer than half the number of goals this season compared to last. Simply put, the team are less of a goal threat in the final third. That was certainly evident earlier in the season when the team were unable to turn dominance and possession into clear-cut chances.

The nadir at Tynecastle, in an attacking sense at least, arrived in the draw with Killie and loss to Motherwell with a total of one shot on target across the two games. 

The quality of shots Hearts take in home matches is the worst in the Premiership. That can be measured by xG/shot. It currently stands at 0.07, compared to 0.09 away from home and 0.10 at Tynecastle Park last season. It may seem miniscule but it adds up over the course of a season. Despite taking, on average, four more shots per 90, they are not as threatening. As well as xG/shot, the team's xG and clear shots per 90 have both fallen as per the radar below with last season in red and this season in blue.

It is something the coaching staff are aware of. Naismith highlighted it as an area in need of work during the '90 minutes with the coaches' event organised by the Foundation of Hearts last week.

While the quality of chance has dropped in away games as well, the team are much more of a threat when counter-attacking and from set pieces. The latter is an area the team have done plenty of work on, in both a defensive and an attacking sense. 

The biggest change and improvement away from Tynecastle Park is the team's defensive output. There have been significant strides in giving up fewer goal-scoring opportunities. The team are less susceptible to the counter-attack and, in turn, the number of clear shots given up, as well as counter-attacking shots conceded, have dropped significantly, which has meant the team's xG and xG/shot have noticeably improved. 

It is reflected in the goals conceded. Hearts are giving up, on average, fewer than half the goals on the road as they were last season, 0.73 goals a game compared to 1.58.

Why has it changed?

"For me, the bigger thing is they are two different games," Naismith told Hearts Standard. "When we’re home, teams are happy for a point. We need to work out how to break them down. But also you have got to do that in a fashion that entertains the fans.

"That is harder to do than when you are away from home. Yes, we carry a big support but teams, when we’re away from home, feel they have a better opportunity to beat you so they are more adventurous, more aggressive in the way they play.

"When we are on it and we’re good at it we’ll play through that and create chances. That is the biggest thing at the moment but we don’t do anything that differently. We know they are going to be two different games, we know that teams are going to sit in here. We know we have got to use the tempo.

"We’ve experienced the deep block that much that we’re comfortable, we know what it is like and there is no panic, no fear."

The way opposing teams set up has had an obvious impact. Hearts are expected to dominate the ball in most homes each season but not to the extent they have done with opposition teams setting up differently than in the past. It's hard to remember a time when teams were so reactive.

Hearts have witnessed the second-biggest increase in average defensive distance in home matches this season, compared to last campaign. A consequence of opponents sitting deeper allowing Naismith's men to push up.

A familiar sight earlier in the season was of Hearts having plenty of possession but not working the ball quick enough to make life uncomfortable for the opposition with the game being played in front of them instead. As the campaign has progressed the Gorgie side have become more accustomed to it and found ways to win games.

Teams have used different methods to make life difficult for Hearts. The Steelmen, for example, had a narrow, box-like midfield that would lay traps to then pounce aggressively when the ball went into certain areas.

St Johnstone allowed Frankie Kent to have the ball, sitting off and blocking any possible passes into wider, more dangerous areas.

Livingston set up a yellow wall. Hearts that evening attempted more than 734 passes.

There has been a noticeable uptick in the number of passes from last season to this. A 15-per-cent increase while the average possession share has gone up four per cent. Once again, when you look at the metrics across the board, it is largely encouraging. More deep completions, more dribbles and more successful crosses. Despite the increased possession, there have been fewer passes inside the opposition box, while an area where there is a significant change is the pace toward the goal. The build-up speed is slower. Again, this is a consequence of opposition teams staying in their shape. Hearts have required more patience.

Away contrast

It has been remarked amongst fans that Hearts appear to be more suited to playing away from home. Especially with the back three, the team are very well-organised and possess a solid defensive structure. The onus is not on them as much and they can be more reactive.

We can see in the graph below (home in red and away in blue) how the team's possession play changes and backs up Naismith's point that it is two different games. Passes, possession, passes inside the box, deep completions and dribbles all decrease significantly but the pace toward the goal increases.

In turn, the number of counter-attacking shots has increased as has the quality of the chances the team are creating in general.

It goes back to a comment Naismith made above. Teams "are more adventurous, more aggressive in the way they play" when they are at home. There is more space and there is greater equality with the possession. Because of the team's defensive structure, they have a solid foundation to withstand more pressure and take advantage of more opportunities where the opposition are more vulnerable.

And what can be done to improve the home form?

"From the moment I came here as a player until now, it's shifted in the way away teams set up against us, 100 per cent," Naismith told Hearts Standard last month. "When I played here as a player it was more open, there were more turnovers. It’s less like that which impacts what we can do."

Hearts are at their most entertaining at home when there is an element of chaos. Rosenborg, for example, was great fun. The best home performances in the league were the win over St Mirren and draw with Hibs. In both, there was a far more equitable share in possession. The encounter with the Buddies is more pertinent because that is the kind of opposition the team have struggled to break down.

Naismith's men appeared more willing to sit in their shape and allow the visitors to have a wee bit more of the ball. That wasn't the case, however, according to the Hearts head coach.

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"I think their press worked better than ours in the first half," he told Hearts Standard. "It made them get the ball but I didn’t feel we were under too much pressure when we had it which helps. I think it was more about their press, they cut the pitch, they stopped us playing.

"When we did play we did gain control a bit more. It was more down to that than us changing. Even if teams have more of the ball I don’t think it necessarily means they are going to be more adventurous. It will be where the game is played, ie getting corners, throw-ins. I think that will inevitably be where it will end up rather than pinning us in."

The change should come through players becoming increasingly comfortable with what is required of them. The team have been guilty of playing too safe at times this season. Naismith has praised the team for their patience during the season, including the weekend, but at the same time noting there have been too many passes.

Taking more risks, playing forward quicker and more often when the opportunity presents itself would allow teams not to regain their defensive shape. Dexter Lembikisa's arrival could, in theory, help. With his blistering pace, he should make the team quicker and provide an attribute in the wide areas the team has lacked on occasion.

Hearts want to have control of the game through possession but not possession for possession's sake, while the fans want to see the game played with greater tempo and urgency. It is a difficult balance to strike but if the home form can become as impressive as the away form it will allow Hearts to saunter to third place.