Hearts 3-2 Dundee: Subs impact, encouraging change, high xG

A tight, tense game was expected for Steven Naismith's men against Dundee at Tynecastle Park on Tuesday evening. But few could have expected the topsy-turvy nature of the encounter which saw Heart of Midlothian come from trailing 2-0 at half-time to win 3-2 while also missing a penalty for the third time in four Premiership fixtures.

Over the piece, Hearts deserved to win. They created chances in the first half that they didn't take. They responded well after half-time and were largely relentless and their quality and pressure told in the end.

As we can see, Hearts had nearly twice the attempts and more than twice the xG, aided by Shankland's penalty which is worth 0.78. Fans won't be surprised by the possession stats with that share staying pretty consistent throughout the 90 minutes. What else we can tell from the match stats is that the home side were much more effective at winning the ball back. Naismith's side recorded twice the number of pressure regains (times a player’s team won the ball back within 5 seconds of the player pressuring an opponent).

Chances and changes in momentum

The race chart makes for interesting reading. This details when the chances arrived during the 90 minutes and how good a chance it was. We can see that Hearts had good chances before both Dundee goals. Stephen Kingsley's header and then Lawrence Shankland's effort over the bar after fine work from Dexter Lembikisa. Dundee would take advantage of both.

In the second half, the visitors offered very little. Their efforts, all three of them, amounted to 0.15. There was a 30-minute spell where they didn't trouble the Hearts goal or even the vicinity once.

We can see Calem Nieuwenhof's goal was a low-value effort but it was incredibly important with Hearts struggling to create after the interval. It started the comeback and the pressure became incessant in the final 20 minutes.

READ MORE: Steven Naismith: Macaulay Tait importance, Scott Fraser update, formation tweak

Shots

Hearts recorded their highest xG in a home game since the win over Livingston when they dominated the West Lothian side. A third of the team's 15 efforts were blocked. Amusingly - it can be amusing since they won - the Gorgie side didn't score from their three efforts with the highest expectancy to result in a goal - Kingsley's header, Alan Forrest's chance in the six-yard box and Shankland's penalty. Those three opportunities made up 1.31 of the team's xG. The three goals scored amounted to 0.13 with Calem Nieuwenhof's attempt the lowest.

Naismith's side will be frustrated that they gave up two goals from Dundee's xG of 0.79.

READ MORE: Hearts analysis: Huge comeback, formation switch, defence issues, Lembikisa

Passing and position changes

The thing that stands out from the passing network and average position of the starting XI is how play gravitated towards the right. Hearts clearly tried to make the most of Dexter Lembikisa's pace and directness. That could be seen when watching from the stands. But how do the first and second half compare (beware it is slightly messy because it takes into account all players who featured)?

Straight away, the circles of Craig Halkett and Frankie Kent are much smaller in the second half. That means they saw much less of the ball. That's obviously a good thing. Lembikisa is deeper after the interval but there is a better balance with Kingsley also pushing much higher due to the switch to a back four. The team in general were more advanced and played the game higher up the pitch, notice Zander Clark's lack of involvement with the ball. However, no one epitomised this more than Macaulay Tait who replaced Beni Baningime. Much more on Tait will follow in the in-depth analysis article.

READ MORE: Dundee boss Tony Docherty questions VAR after Hearts' comeback win

Defensive pressure

Dundee followed suit of many sides who have come to Tynecastle on league business this season. Leave the centre-backs with the ball. The heatmap above shows they exerted very little pressure in the final third and concentrated efforts on the wide areas. That is where Hearts were trying to get a lot of joy, both in the back three and switch to a back four. 

Looking at the Hearts pressure map it shows a lot of activity down the right. An explanation for this is as we explored higher up, the team focused a lot of their attacks towards the right. Therefore, when the ball was lost, they would naturally look to win it back and it would be on that side.

READ MORE: Aidan Denholm Q&A: Being a Hearts first-team player, winter break work, jacket stick

Oda and Forrest impact

We will explore in more detail the roles of Macaulay Tait and Dexter Lembikisa in the win with both playing important roles. Both Yutaro Oda and Alan Forrest also played their part. The latter had more minutes on the pitch having come on in the first-half but it was when he moved to a wide position in the 4-2-3-1 that he exerted most of his influence.

Forrest had the joint-highest passes into the box and second-highest touches in the box along with Oda. The Japanese forward also recorded the second-highest number of shots despite being on the pitch for around 25 minutes.