Right foot, left foot, header. No matter where the ball falls or floats, if it is in his vicinity, there is a good chance Lawrence Shankland will finish it.

When the striker signed for Heart of Midlothian from Belgian club Beerschot in the summer of 2022 there were doubts. Some saw him as no more than a goal scorer, owing to his brilliant record at League One and Championship level with Ayr United and Dundee United. Others would question whether he had what it took to thrive in the Premiership, pointing to the 13 goals for United and Beerschot in the Scottish and Belgian top flights across two seasons.

READ MORE: The Lawrence Shankland story: From Queen's Park to Hearts and Scotland star​

He has shut down both emphatically. Supporters have quickly appreciated how intelligent a footballer he is. Technically excellent with brilliant awareness and vision. And then the goals speak for themselves.

'He only scores penalties' was the bitter cry of opposition fans last season. It is almost as if he has taken that personally. Seventeen of his 20 goals this campaign have been from open play, including all 14 in the league and one for Scotland. It is a tally that has him out in front of the top scorer standings.

Is it any wonder Hearts are looking to make him the highest-paid player at the club?

It is patently clear. He is deserving of a new deal, he is an excellent striker, a brilliant goal scorer and a wonderful finisher. But scratch below the surface with a focus on his goals in the Premiership, he has taken what he produced last season and found another level of goal-scoring.

Back to last season

Shankland became the first player to hit 20 goals in a season for Hearts since Robertson in 1991/92. Of his 28 strikes, 24 came in the Premiership with 11 of those from the penalty spot.

We can see from the graphic below that the 13 non-penalty goals arrived from 109 shots. He averaged 2.92 shots per 90 minutes. And of his 109 shots, he hit the target with 37 per cent. His goal conversion was 12 per cent.

Those 13 were netted from a non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) tally of 13.02. If you broke it down per 90 minutes, his 0.35 non-penalty goals per 90 matched matched his NPxG per 90.

Ignore the jargon, he was doing exactly what was expected of him.

When we look at the likelihood of a goal being scored once he hit a shot, the metric used is post-shot xG. Last season it was 15.43. That suggests that Shankland was expected to score two more goals from open play. 

We can see that 93 of his shots (85 per cent) came from within the box. Of those on target, the majority are grouped from 16 yards inward and between the edges of the six-yard box. That's reflected in his goals. He scored the majority of them from where you expect a No.9 to operate.

This season

Shankland's numbers are all the more impressive this campaign. He has scored 14 goals from an NPxG of 8.07. Two players - Kyogo Furuhashi and Cyriel Dessers - have recorded a higher expected value of non-penalty goals but both trail by six goals.

He averages 3.08 shots per 90 minutes, a slight increase on last season. And his 74 attempts are the highest in the league. Shankland has hit the target with 38 per cent of his efforts, similar to last season, but his goal conversion has increased to 18 per cent (fourth best of Premiership forwards).

 

If we were to compare this season's efforts to last season, there is one specific area that has witnessed a noticeable change: In and around the D. Look at the grouping on the right-hand side picture (this season). It has increased from two last campaign to 13 so far. In turn, three of his goals have come from that area, including the weekend's strike against Aberdeen and the blockbuster hit against St Mirren.

This is something Shankland has been incredibly effective at. Turning, on paper, low-value shots into goals. xG will take into account the position where the striker is shooting from as well as the defenders and goalkeeper. For example, his first goal of the season against St Johnstone had an xG of 0.79, the closest to 1 he has had this campaign because he was less than six yards out and shooting into an empty net after Liam Boyce had squared it.

READ MORE: How loans, psychologist and hard work are making Harry Stone a better goalkeeper

The goals from outside the box against Celtic, Aberdeen and St Mirren ranged from an xG of 0.05 to 0.07. Essentially a player would be expected to score with those efforts every 16 to 20 shots. Impressively, once he had hit those shots their value increased to 0.60 and beyond in terms of the likelihood that they would end up in a good, ie a fantastic strike into a good area. The one against St Mirren, as shown below, went from 0.05 to 0.79. That's how good a strike it was. 

During a seven-game Premiership dry spell earlier in the campaign, which is shown below, none of the longer-range efforts came off for him. He was largely starved of service with no chances from inside the six-yard box and only having an xG value of more than 0.10 on two chances.

One thing that should be considered with the xG metric is that it doesn't take into account the person who is hitting the shot. Shankland is outperforming what is expected of him. He is averaging 0.55 goals per 90 minutes from an xG of 0.32 per 90. Is it a case of him hitting a hot streak with an upcoming regression or does it just show how much of an expert finisher he is?

Watching him in action this campaign and last season as well, Hearts fans will gravitate towards the latter. He appears to have improved his level in front of goal. The variety of his finishing and his improvisation, when he is in and around the box, has been hugely impressive. Below demonstrates areas he has scored from in the Premiership this season.

Eight of his 13 goals from open play in the Premiership last season were with his right foot. This season there is a more equitable split. Six with his right, four with his left and four with his head. The latter is an underrated part of his game. He has found real joy at peeling away to the back post to get his head on chances. The best was at Celtic where he powered a header past Joe Hart. 

READ MORE: Pressing, decisions and second balls: How Hearts turned the tide against Aberdeen

Meanwhile, Hearts fans have seen him stroke and curl shots with the outside of his foot. There have been composed first-time efforts, thunderous strikes, going around the keeper and your typical poacher goals.

If we compare this season's goals (on the right) with last season's (on the left) there is an area of the box that stands out. Look at the gap in the middle of the box and around the penalty spot.

Why, despite an increase in goals from open play, is there such an expanse? One explanation could well be opposition defences. As Hearts fans are well aware, teams have tended to sit deeper against Steven Naismith's men, ensuring they are compact and shutting off space.

If you think of Shankland picking up the ball on the left-hand side inside the box. He will naturally want to cut onto his right to fire an effort at goal. An extra touch or momentary pause can see opponents get into areas to crowd him out and block shots as well can see from the graph below.

There is in effect more space for him slightly further out. The instinctive but measured nature of his goals against St Mirren, Celtic and Aberdeen prevents defences and goalkeepers from getting set.

Shankland requires just three more goals to reach the 50-club for Hearts. He would become the first player since to do so since Jamie Walker and will be the first to do so in his first two seasons at the club since Willie Bauld. He has now reached a point where he is expected to score in each game that passes, such is the esteem he is held amongst the club's support. A fanbase that have watched the player grow as an all-round striker but also goal scorer. 

If the ball falls or floats to him, the likelihood is that the net will ripple seconds later.