Hearts 1-1 Hibs: 17% chance of win and lack of clear chances

The former Sheffield United midfielder added that he thought Hearts would be "happy" with the point.

Now, no Hearts fan will ever be "happy" with a point in a derby played at Tynecastle Park. But, like the final derby of last season, it is a result they would likely take having witnessed what went on before. It is hard to dispute that the men from Leith were the better side.

Match stats

That is reflected in some of the key figures we can see above. While Hearts had more possession and kept the ball slightly better it was Hibs who created the better chances. Their xG of 2.46 is far greater than Hearts' 1.43. Even more so when you consider 0.78 of that figure is made up of Lawrence Shankland's penalty. 

On the defensive side of play, Hibs won as many tackles (23) as Hearts attempted with Nathan Moriah-Welsh winning eight of those as he brought a competitive steel to the visitor's midfield.

Race chart

This paints a clearer picture of the visiting side's chance creation compared to Hearts. We can see that the first half, in terms of chances, was relatively even with long spells of little goal-mouth action. The second half was more of a basketball match, more open and back and forth. 

When you break down the better efforts, Hibs had nine shots with an xG value of more than 0.10 (a chance you would expect a team to score once every 10 shots). Hearts had just two, including the penalty. Of those nine for Hibs, four were 0.20 or higher. Simply put, they created the better chances and it is therefore not all that surprising that StatsBomb gave the visitors a 59 per cent chance of winning compared to the 17 per cent for Hearts.

Shot map

Assessing the Hearts chances, like Saturday at Ibrox, it was disappointing the lack of efforts from between the posts and within 15 yards. That is the prime spot to score. Only three of 14, including the penalty, were within that zone.

Contrast that to Hibs. They had 11 efforts from in that zone.

Between the two teams' 35 shots, just five found the target with a large portion blocked (those in grey). Twenty-one in total.

Naismith spoke about the resilience shown by his players after going a goal behind. With the way the teams were playing the feeling was Hibs could build on their lead. However, Hearts got control culminating in the Shankland penalty. Between that period of Hibs going ahead and Hearts equalising, the visitors didn't have a shot.

Front four difference

The Hibs front four compared to the Hearts front four was notable. The pass network below displays their On-Ball Value. Red and orange suggest greater value than blue for example.

Between the Hibs quartet, they had 16 shots with an xG value of 2.07. Ten shots assists, six passes into the box and 28 touches in the box combined. The Hearts four of Forrest, Shankland, Fraser and Vargas had 12 shots with an xG value of 1.30. There were three shot assists, three passes into the box and 14 touches in the opposition box.

Scott Fraser struggles to make an impact

Of the Hearts four, it was Scott Fraser, making his first appearance in an Edinburgh derby, who struggled the most. He was fielded on the right of the attack before being moved centrally at halftime. But it was only a short stay of execution before being subbed in the 55th minute.

It was always going to be a difficult task for a player like Fraser in the hectic nature of the Edinburgh derby. But he didn't settle as well or was involved nearly as much as the Hibs new boys.

His influence and impact, or lack thereof, can be seen in the stats. Fraser was brought in to provide a creative threat. Across his time on the pitch he had one shot, no key passes, no passes into the box, no through balls, no dribbles, no crosses and just one touch inside the box.

Hearts pressure

Without yet watching the game back to analyse the Hearts performance in greater depth, the feeling watching the game was of a home team who were happy to sit off the two Hibs centre-backs and then put pressure on when the ball was played into a player higher up. That is reflected in the below diagram that indicates where Hearts players made defensive efforts, whether it be.

In the end, it was a point that suited the home side rather than the away side. It may have been different if there had been better decision-making in the final third. But, equally, if Hibs were more clinical we could easily be discussing the first derby loss at Tynecastle since the 2012/20 season. Thankfully that is not the case.