The 2023/24 season was always going to be about change for Heart of Midlothian. Steven Naismith’s permanent appointment meant that the head coach would be imposing his own ideas about how the game should be played onto his squad, and the team’s tactical set-up would naturally evolve. The make-up of the squad itself was altered as new first-team players were recruited and others departed, and there was a feeling of the slate being wiped clean when the campaign kicked off.

Change is what we got. A disastrous mid-season run of form last term proved costly as Hearts finished three points short of third-placed Aberdeen; this time around, the team’s magnificent run of form around the same period allowed the men in maroon to ultimately canter to third. All sorts of feats have been achieved and the mood music around Gorgie is, rightfully, far more positive than this time last year.

But for all the tactical tweaks and the impact of new arrivals, how have Hearts actually changed this season? What are the areas where we can see clear signs of progress, and what aspects of the team’s performances still need a little more work? Let’s take a look.

Defence

We’ll start at the back. Now, it’s no secret that the defence has been tightened up this season, but the scale of the improvement has perhaps been understated. Take a look at the graphic below, which shows how Hearts performed as a team in key defensive metrics last season (red) and how that’s changed this season (blue).

As we can see, there have been huge strides taken forward in almost every area – and much of the improvement has been dramatic. The number of goals conceded and xG against has plummeted, as has the average xG per shot for the opposition, even though Hearts are giving up an almost identical amount of shots per game across the two seasons. This tells us that Naismith’s side are regularly forcing their opponents into hitting low-probability shots, but with one curious caveat: the number of clear-cut chances conceded per game has risen. This means that Hearts are largely very solid at the back, and most of the chances they give up are unlikely to result in a goal, but there are still a couple each game on average that have a relatively high xG.

It's worth pointing out that the amount of counter-attacking shots conceded has taken a noticeable dip, implying that Hearts have vastly improved while in defensive tradition, while the team have also become far more robust when defending set-plays. The set-piece xG against across the two seasons is largely the same, but now they rarely result in an opposition goal. Hearts have gone from one of the worst teams in the league in this regard to one of the very best. Frankie McAvoy, who coaches set-piece routines, deserves an enormous amount of credit here.

There hasn’t been much change in the opposition’s passes per defensive action (a metric that indicates how long a team retains possession before losing it), which suggests Hearts’ ball-winning ability hasn’t changed all that much from last season. But take a look at the pressures, counterpressures and aggression, all of which have significantly improved. This tells us Hearts are working harder off the ball, even if they aren’t winning it back quicker. And then there’s the disciplinary record. The rate at which the team accrues bookings remains a little under two per game, but with one big difference: Hearts finished the season without a single red card in all competitions.

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Passing

It’s impossible to deny that Hearts have vastly improved at the back, but how does the team fare a little further forward? The graphic below shows how the team have performed as a collective in terms of their passing, with the red shape again representing last season and the blue showing how the class of 23/24 have got on.

There are a couple of things that stand out. Look at the possession figures, for instance. Hearts’ overall share of the ball is pretty much the same, but the number of possessions has dropped significantly. This tells us that Hearts are enjoying longer, sustained periods with the ball at their feet. The men in maroon are hitting around an additional 30 passes per game with roughly the same accuracy, which again points to longer passages of passing play.

More measure. More control. That’s also reflected in Hearts’ pace to goal (a metric that measures how quickly the team advance up the park), which has dropped significantly compared to last season. In short: Hearts are becoming more patient on the ball, carefully choosing their moment to strike.

There has also been a noticeable improvement in the team’s passing in and around the final third. Deep completions (passes completed within 20 metres of the opposition goal, excluding crosses), deep progressions (passes and dribbles into the final third) and passes inside the box have all gone up, suggesting that Naismith’s side have become a more effective presence closer to goal. Interestingly, the proportion of entries into the box that are crosses remains the same at 26 per cent, but their accuracy has dropped a couple of percentage points.

READ MORE: How Hearts season was one of time: Naismith, falling apart, Shankland, feats

Attacking

We can see clear signs of progress at the back and there are areas where the team’s work on the ball has improved, but how about Hearts’ effectiveness in front of goal? The graphic below shows how the team have collectively performed this season (blue) compared to the previous one (red), and there are a few areas worth zeroing in on.

We’ll start with the big stuff: goals and xG. Hearts’ goals per 90 has dropped from 1.66 to 1.42, and the xG has decreased from 1.21 to 1.13. Naismith’s side aren’t scoring as many goals as the class of ’23, and the quality and quantity of chances created has dipped a little, even though the team are attempting more shots per game. The average xG per shot has subsequently dropped by 0.02, which might not sound like a lot, but it is a sizable decrease. This tells us that Hearts are hitting more shots, but from poorer areas. There is one exception, though – the number of clear-cut opportunities fashioned per game has marginally risen, but it’s still a relatively low figure compared to the rest of the Premiership.

Hearts attempted more shots from open play this season, while the number of counter-attacking shots remained around the same level. The average shot distance is also pretty much identical and there has been little change here. There has been a sizable decrease in the number of dribbles per game (to the point where Hearts are now one of the most dribbling-averse teams in the Premiership), but the biggest change has arrived at attacking set-pieces.

Last season’s return of 0.18 set-piece goals per 90 was one of the worst in the league and this term it has risen to 0.24; still a fairly average rate when compared to the rest of the division, but a clear upturn nonetheless. This is also reflected in the team’s xG from attacking set-pieces, which has risen from 0.24 to 0.29. Again, this might not seem like much, but it’s the difference between performing well below the league average and becoming one of the league’s more effective teams at dead-ball situations.

READ MORE: He's done things we never expected: What we've learned from Naismith's year at Hearts

Plenty of progress but room for growth

All in all, there are plenty of reasons to feel optimistic about how Hearts have evolved on Naismith’s watch this season. The improvement at the back has been stark, there has been a greater degree of control in possession and a notable upturn in set-pieces at both ends. Hearts are more measured when going forward, but a byproduct of that patient approach is that there has been a dip in chance creation and goal scoring. To be fair, it’s an area where the team have improved as the season wore on, but the challenge next season will be to maintain that level of attacking output over the course of a full campaign.

Intricate patterns of play in the final third are often the most complex routines to coach, and so they are usually the final piece of the jigsaw puzzle (just look at Steve Clarke’s Scotland, for example). The progress made in defence and midfield is an excellent foundation to build on in the new season and if Hearts can fully click into gear in attack, they will be a fearsome opponent indeed. The 2023/24 campaign has been about change – but 2024/25 will be defined by evolution, not revolution.