Analysing Hearts attackers with one surprise standout

The ranking for each metric is done by percentile value, with the 1st percentile being the worst, and the 99th the best. If a player plays in multiple positions, then I’ve chosen what I believe to be their main position.

READ MORE: How close are Hearts to a complete midfield - and Cammy Devlin underappreciation

Central Midfielders

Cammy Devlin’s performances in the past few months have been nothing short of outstanding, highlighted by his Player of the Month Award in April and, more recently, a call-up to the Australian national team. Devlin’s improved displays could be down to several factors, but I believe the influence of Steven Naismith seems to have been the most impactful. The Aussie is playing in a slightly different role of late and is showing an improved confidence in his own all-round game.

Off the ball we see exactly what was expected. Devlin is involved in a huge number of duels and wins enough of them to put him in the 88th percentile for success rate. Quite often we see players who are involved in a lot of duels not actually winning a huge percentage, but that’s not the case here. More impressively, he sits in the 91st percentile for interceptions (again, not a big surprise!). On the ball, Devlin proves his doubters wrong by both being involved in a vast number of passes, and having a high success rate, leaving him in the 91st percentile for passing accuracy.

While Devlin plays a fair number of progressive passes, we see him excel more in forward passes and passes to the final third, both with a high level of accuracy. Sitting in the 91st percentile for successful dribbles and 66th percentile for deep completions (non-cross balls into the box) we see a player who is certainly confident and competent on the ball. It's probably time to put to bed the notion that he isn’t great on the ball.

Calem Nieuwenhof has spent the end of the season on the treatment table, bringing his total games missed this season due to injury up to 16. A young player who started slowly at Hearts but grew into an almost guaranteed starter towards the middle of the season.

His data probably doesn’t reflect what Jambos saw from him in his final 10 or so games prior to his season-ending injury, and I suspect this graph will be vastly different when revisited at this point next year, with him being tipped for a national team call-up prior to his injury.

Nieuwenhof excels most in his passing accuracy. Even though his graph shows him not being as involved as he was later in the season, he is assured in all types of passing, making sure the ball finds its man. He ranks in the 73rd percentile for accelerations, and this is something we became used to seeing from the Aussie. In attack, even though he doesn’t shoot much, he boasts a good goal-conversion rate, and his two assists this season leave him in the 56th percentile for assists. He’s fairly steady across the board and it will be interesting to see his development under Naismith in the next 12 months.

Aidan Denholm went into the off-season last year without a team after being released by Hearts. The new management team made an executive decision to offer the lifelong Jambo a new contract, and it was an easy offer for him to accept. This season has seen him used as a bit-part player, only managing an average of 41 minutes per game across his 17 league appearances.

Denholm's data shows an energetic midfielder, one who is keen to get involved off the ball. He’s in the 88th percentile for attempted duels, 85th percentile for attempted aerial duels, as well as the 55th percentile for interceptions. Considering he’s still young and getting used to a level four tiers higher than he was previously playing in, I expect his success rates in these categories to increase as he adapts and matures. On the ball he shows something that Hearts fans really enjoy: a player who will drive forward with the ball. Denholm is in the 83rd percentile for attempted dribbles, 95th percentile for progressive runs, and 86th percentile for accelerations with the ball.

Macaulay Tait was an instant fans' favourite. The product of the youth academy had made a few short sub appearances, but officially announced himself as a first team player with a huge tackle on Alistair Johnson as payback for a late tackle received a few minutes prior. Most youth players would shy away into their shell after taking a big hit from a Celtic player, but not Tait. He dusted himself off and showed he’s not one to back down from a fight.

Tait has only managed 330 minutes over the course of 12 matches, so the data we have for him isn’t great. What we do see though, is another central midfielder who has great anticipation when intercepting the ball, leaving him in the 98th percentile. Tait has some promising passing data, being involved in passing the ball more than an average player, and with a good level of accuracy. He’s also in the 75th percentile when it comes to successful passes into the final third, something that will be handy when he gets more regular time on the pitch. Tait has also had more shots per 90 than any other central midfielder in the league, which may just be down to the low amount of time he’s spent on the pitch.

Scott Fraser came to Hearts hopeful of winning a permanent contract with the Gorgie club, but has he done enough to earn it? He’s another who hasn’t played a significant number of minutes, so we have to take the data with a pinch of salt.

Take his assist data, for example. Fraser has managed one assist in the 476 league minutes he’s played this season. If he continues this, then he’d get a high number of assists over the course of a season if he played regularly. With the low number of minutes he’s played, it’s hard to know if that would happen though.

What we do see though is someone who likes to get on the ball and play accurate passes, albeit probably taking the safer option more often, though a high level of deep completions most likely adds to his high xA number. On the pitch, he’s probably not shown enough for most Hearts fans to think he’s merited a permanent contract, but apparent injury issues could be taken into consideration if Naismith has the option to sign him this summer.

Jorge Grant has played in several positions for Hearts and could be classed as a winger due to the time spent on the left side of the three behind the striker. I’ve chosen to group him with the central midfielders as he’d probably class himself in that role, albeit in more of an attacking role in the centre of the park.

When looking at the Englishman’s attacking data, he ranks extremely highly across the board. His worst percentile is the 83rd and the best in the 91st. This shows us a player who is contributing at high levels at the top end of the park. In possession he is involved pretty regularly, making a good number of passes per game. But it’s his accuracy that is more impressive. He’s in the 83rd percentile for accurate passes, 88th percentile for accurate forward passes, 91st percentile for accurate progressive passes and 85th percentile for accurate passes to the final third.

He’s also both making a high level of deep completions, better than 95 percent of others, and touches the ball in the box more than 85 per cent of midfielders. This data is highly promising and he will surely be pushed to perform at a higher level with the introductions of Blair Spittal and Yan Dhanda in a position similar to his.

READ MORE: Tom Irving: Eight smart transfer options Hearts could consider

Wingers

Alan Forrest’s personal highlight of the year will surely be his goal-of-the-season-winning rocket against Hibs in October, but how has he performed out with that? Off the ball, we know that Forrest does a huge amount of running, closing down space, chasing lost balls and all round being a pest to the opposition. This doesn’t translate to his off-the-ball data though, which is a good example of why we need to combine data scouting with live scouting.

In attack, Forrest ranks highly for goals and expected goals, as well as assists. This is emphasised by the fact he ranks in the 88th percentile for shots per 90, and 80th percentile for shots on target. This shows a player oozing with confidence in the final third. The tenacious winger also shows a high level of passing accuracy, with his percentile for these metrics ranging between the 77th and 91st.

My favourite type of player is an old-school direct winger. A player you know just wants to get the ball out wide and find a way past his opposite number. Forrest’s dribbling data shows a player who does just that. He dribbles more than 80 per cent of other wingers and has a success rate better than 86 per cent of them. He also accelerates with the ball more than any other winger, and progressively runs with the ball more than 97 per cent of wingers. Forrest struggles to get his head up at times and his crossing accuracy reflects that. If he can improve this then he could have another huge season ahead of him.

Barrie McKay missed 30 games this season with two separate knee injuries, so hasn’t featured as much as he would have liked and therefore has limited data. Hearts fans are used to McKay contributing a lot in the final third of the pitch, and his data does suggest that he has been successful in doing so in his reduced time on the pitch. His incredible assist for Vargas’ goal against Dundee may have only been one of two assists this season, but as we’ve seen in previous seasons, we could take an educated guess that he’d keep this assist rate up over the course of a full campaign.

In possession, the winger impresses with how involved he is, ranking in the 86th percentile for passes, progressive passes and passes into the final third. Each of these metrics are also paired with very impressive success rates. The season has been a frustrating one for the Scotland cap, but if he can continue his impressive passing into the new season, we may well see him back to his best.

Yutaro Oda scored his first Hearts goal on the final day of the 22/23 season, a crucial goal to maintain natural order and keep Hearts above Hibs for another season. We didn’t have to wait long for his next league goal, which came in the form of a match winner in the opening game of the 23/24 season in Perth. This was the first of five goals for the Japan Under-23 internationalist, a scoring record which had him in the 94th percentile for goals per 90. With more minutes, we could see him easily breaking double figures.

We see Oda also in the 97th percentile for his goal conversion rate. When signing for Hearts, I researched the data behind his previous season in Japan. I found that he took the second most shots and had the second highest shooting accuracy for under-25 wingers, yet he was unable to register a league goal all season.

The data shows his shooting accuracy has declined, so it seems he was happy previously to hit the target instead of being risky and finding a corner or hitting the ball with sheer power. But now, he may miss the target more, but when he doesn’t, he is more likely to score. Naismith has instilled confidence in the winger, and the rewards have shown in the form of numerous brilliant goals.

READ MORE: How Hearts have evolved this season: Defiant defence, more control and set-pieces

Forwards

The undisputed champion of Scotland needs no introduction. Lawrence Shankland’s mantlepiece will be needing a structural engineer to assess it due to the weight of the end-of-season awards weighing down on it. But does he only score goals?

It’s no surprise that Shankland has a better goal per 90 rate than any other forward in the league, slightly surpassing his place in the xG metric. A man not as well known for assists; he sits in the 81st percentile for xA. I suppose Jambos wouldn’t mind having another Shankland next to him to finish the chances he’s creating! As well as this, Shankland has more touches in the box than 96 per cent of strikers, which again isn’t a surprise to many.

In possession, Shankland is very often involved. He makes more passes and passes to the final third than any other striker, more progressive passes than 96 per cent of his Premiership contemporaries, and more passes to the penalty box than 92 per cent of them, most of which are paired with impressive accuracy. A lot of what Shanks does isn’t available on Wyscout though. Earlier in the season, The CIES football observatory showed that the Scotland striker ranked 10th in distance covered per match by a striker in the 32 non-big 5 leagues.

Kenneth Vargas contributed six goals and two assists in the league, a fine debut season in the Scottish Premiership for the man who’s just turned 22. This form has been rewarded with his national team debut for his native Costa Rica.

The attacking data shows good level of goal contributions but most impressively it also shows that he’s in the 92nd percentile for xA, which highlights that he’s creating good chances for his team-mates. In possession, we see a player who has a heavy involvement on the park, with a high success rate in passes and progressive passes, and the highest success rate in the league for passes to the final third.

'Huevito' is confident on the ball, dribbling more than 85 per cent of forwards, making more progressive runs than 92 per cent, and accelerating with the ball more than 85 per cent. As Vargas gets more acclimatised to the football, weather, and learns the language more, we could see a huge improvement in the performances on the pitch for the young Costa Rican.

When Liam Boyce is playing, I can’t step in a Hearts pub on game day without getting “BOYCIE!” shouted at me, the joys of being a bald, ginger, bearded 30-something. Thankfully, the shouts have resumed after a long absence. That means that Boyce has returned to football after a long time out with a knee injury. With the prolonged absence, you’d assume there would be a layer of rust on those football boots, but does the data support that?

While only scoring and assisting one of each this season, Boyce ranked highly for xG, xA, and assists, but low for goals scored. He was in the 92nd percentile for shots taken, but the 7th for shooting accuracy. This might support the rusty theory, which is more than understandable and will no doubt be sorted with a pre-season behind him.

In possession, Boyce ranks extremely high in the amount of passes he’s attempted, with a good level of accuracy across the board. This highlights his role in the team: a creative No.10. Boyce also ranks highly for dribbles (boasting the highest success rate among forwards) and sits in the 75th percentile for progressive runs. Off the ball, he impressively wins more duels than 96 per cent of forwards, and intercepts the ball more than 92 per cent of them. This tells me one thing: he’s keen to put the injury worries behind him and prove his fitness.

Kyosuke Tagawa won the club's Player of the Month award for the 2023/24 season thanks to two well-taken goals in the final two games of the season, the second of which was a brilliantly volleyed equaliser against Rangers with the final touch of the ball for a Hearts player this season.

With Tagawa’s minimal minutes, these two goals leave him in the 62nd percentile for goals per 90, the 66th percentile for xG, and the 77th percentile for goal conversion rate. Tagawa struggled to get a run of games this season, acting as deputy to Scotland’s Player of the Year, which was never going to be an easy task.

His possession data is patchy, but that’s probably to be expected with short cameos here and there across the length of the season. Jambos will be hopeful he’s pushing for a starting place after the summer and want to see more of the brilliant movement and finishing that the Japanese cap displayed with the two goals at the end of the campaign.