Heart of Midlothian made history last season, qualifying for Europe for the third season running for the first time in the club's history. It is a feat that should be celebrated but it is also one that points to underachievement.

Aberdeen and Dundee United had of course done it. Kilmarnock and St Johnstone had also achieved it. Even Hibs had managed to do it.

Now that hoodoo has been put to bed, Hearts will aim to make it four seasons in a row. More than that, the focus should be on another third-place finish. This is something that will need to be achieved while playing at least eight games in Europe, a campaign which starts with the Europa League play-off on August 22.

The importance of a third third-place finish in the last four seasons shouldn't be under-egged. This coming season could be the last for a while where third in the Scottish Premiership (providing either of the top two wins the Scottish Cup, of course) will be guaranteed league phase football in the Conference League.

Gavin, the man behind the excellent Scotland's Coefficient, outlined the predicament Scottish football finds itself in going into this season. Or, as he put it, "Scottish football's impending European abyss".

"Scotland's coefficient is on a cliff edge heading into this season," he wrote on social media. "We start the season 17th in the coefficient rankings.

"IF the 5 teams entering Europe this season can do enough to climb us back into the top 12 by the end of the season, it will be a phenomenal achievement. If they do not do enough - as the analysts expect - then the impact on our standing in European football in future seasons will be grim.

"If we finish outside the top 15 - NOBODY is guaranteed league phase football, the Champions would have 3 Champions League qualifiers, 2nd place would have 3 CONFERENCE league qualifiers, and the Scottish Cup winner would have FOUR Europa League qualifying rounds."

To clarify, as things stand the 2024/25 season is the last where the team finishing third (or the Scottish Cup winners) will enter the Europa League play-off in the 2025/26 campaign knowing they will at least be playing in the Conference League league phase should they lose.

Why is that?

The long and short of it is Scotland starts 17th in the European coefficient due to the most productive season in recent years falling off the rolling five-year coefficient.

The five Scottish entrants this season need to win enough points to move into the top 12 where the Scottish Cup winners/third-place is guaranteed league phase football and at least eight games. 

Predictions suggest the quintet won't achieve that. Therefore, Gavin explains, a top-15 place is a must. Anything outside the top 15 and Scotland goes from five teams playing in Europe to four with none guaranteed league phase football.

What does it mean for Hearts?

Hearts fans should be looking at this two ways. 

Firstly, a good performance in Europe this season will help the coefficient. Not only Scotland's but the club's own. As Hearts Standard detailed earlier this month, Hearts coefficient is 6.500 putting the club 179th in UEFA's list. The higher the coefficient the more likely the team are to be seeded in draws.

Secondly, it highlights how important it is to finish third (or win the Scottish Cup) this season should Scotland finish outside the top 12/15.

This four-season spell, starting in 2021/22, with the rewards of European group stage/league phase football has been huge for the clubs outside the Old Firm.

Hearts are the team that have taken the most advantage of it so far, finishing third twice and reaping the financial rewards that come with it. The club's involvement in Europe during the 2022/23 season brought in revenue of more than £5million with a profit of more than £3million. Both of those figures are set to increase this season.

Shankland factor

It is pertinent to bring up the topic of Lawrence Shankland, the club's top scorer across the past two seasons. He continues to be linked with a move to Rangers even if Hearts have not been made aware of any interest from any club. He has one year left on his deal and a contract extension doesn't appear to be on the horizon.

Normally, clubs would look to cash in on players in such a situation. Even more so if they can get a seven-figure sum for a player who will be 29 next month. But Shankland's status as a proven goal scorer with 59 in his last two seasons means his value to the club is perhaps more than clubs may be willing to pay. Quite simply, he could be the difference between a £5million European jackpot and not.

Lawrence Shankland could be the difference maker for Hearts once more.Lawrence Shankland could be the difference maker for Hearts once more. (Image: SNS Group)

Not only that but the money that could be added to this season in Europe. Each win is worth €450k in the Europa League league phase and €400k in the Conference League league phase. The higher Hearts finish in the league phase the bigger the prize money.

If any club decides to make the move for Shankland they will have to make it worthwhile for Hearts. Anything below £3million would be a disappointment to fans.

Conclusion

It's another big season for Hearts, one with plenty of rewards should the team perform well in Europe and domestically. 

One of the biggest challenges, perhaps the biggest, will be finding the balance between competing on what will be four fronts across the season. 

To finish third in three of the last four seasons when one of the big rewards is at least eight games in Europe would be a huge achievement. Hearts haven't managed four consecutive top four finishes since the late 1950s into 1960. The last time the team finished third in back-to-back seasons was 20 years ago.

It would also put down a huge marker as being the best of the rest and the financial benefits that come with it, allowing the club to make positive steps on and off the pitch and perhaps put space between themselves and the chasing pack. Maybe even start to chip away at the gap to the Old Firm.