After a long wait, tonight is the night. Months after Heart of Midlothian’s place in the Europa League play-off round was confirmed, Lawrence Shankland and Co. will cross the white lines at the Doosan Arena this evening with a place in the newly-restructured league phase of Europe’s secondary club competition the prize for the winners of the tie. Should they fall short over the duration of the two legs against Viktoria Plzen, there is of course the consolation prize of a place in the Europa Conference League.

Steven Naismith and his backroom staff have had plenty of opportunity, then, to figure out what can be improved upon from last time around when the thrilling 4-3 aggregate win over Rosenborg was followed by a sobering 6-1 defeat at the hands of PAOK as Hearts bowed out of the Conference League at the play-off stage.

Hearts may have only learned the identity of their play-off opponents a week ago – and the usual scouting and preparations will have taken place so that the men in maroon have a game plan in Czechia – but there are broad lessons from last season’s European campaign that Naismith’s side can apply in this one. Experience, after all, is the greatest teacher – and although Hearts only had four games on the continent last term, there was plenty of insight to be gained.

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Defence

Let’s start at the back. At an initial glance, Hearts’ defensive record in Europe last season leaves a fair bit to be desired. Naismith’s men failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their four outings and conceded nine times in total. Only once – the 3-1 win at home to Rosenborg – did they manage to avoid shipping two or more goals. Naturally, this isn’t good enough if Hearts harbor serious ambitions of making it through to the league phase of the Europa League.

The radar above shows how Hearts performed across a range of important defensive metrics in Europe last season (red) and compares it to the team’s performance in the Premiership last season. Before we get any further, we should stress that the European radar should be taken with a pinch of salt (four matches isn’t much of a sample size, after all) but it does provide us with an indication of how Hearts were getting on in comparison with their league displays.

There are a few interesting things to note. The first is what any supporter could have told you: that the defence is leakier in Europe. Interestingly though, the total xG conceded is only marginally worse than what Hearts give up on domestic duty, and the opposition’s xG per shot is actually lower than on the domestic front. We can deduce then that Hearts are giving up more opportunities than they usually do, but they tend to be of a relatively low quality. Unsurprisingly, Hearts commit more pressures in Europe and their PPDA (passes per defensive action) against has also risen, but this is a natural consequence of not having the ball as much (more on that later).

So, why are Hearts conceding more often in Europe?

It’s down to the difference between your average Premiership-level striker and those that are operating at a Europa League level. Like Shankland, they can make the most of lower-quality chances because they are frankly better players. Hearts did well to largely avoid glaring opportunities for their European opponents last season, but they cannot afford to keep giving up as many half-chances as they previously did. At this level you will get punished.

Defensive set-pieces should be a concern as Hearts conceded in three in their four European games last season; a stark contrast to the solitary set-play goal they conceded in 38 Premiership games. This could well be down to our small sample size, rather than a structural problem with the team’s defensive set-up at dead balls, but it is an area that needs to be addressed nonetheless.

The more pressing problem, if you’ll forgive the pun, has often been how the team has dealt with defensive transitions. Both goals conceded away to Rosenborg were the result of cheaply surrendering possession in the middle and getting caught on the break, and Hearts looked decidedly vulnerable to PAOK’s quick attacking play over the two legs against the Greek outfit.

Take a look at the example below, which illustrates the point. The ball is bouncing around the middle with neither team able to get it under control when Alex Cochrane flicks it onto Boyce. He can’t get there first though, and the ball is played back to where it came from.

PAOK manage to get it under control this time as Nathaniel Atkinson steps out, and now Hearts are in real trouble.

Atkinson is easily bypassed, and now PAOK are 4v3 and sprinting at the backline. All it takes is a series of simple sideways passes and Anrdija Zivkovic is in – but on this occasion, Zander Clark is able to deny the striker.

A few minutes pass and Hearts are once again caught out in the middle. A long ball from PAOK is headed in Cochrane’s direction.

The Englishman gets it under control and turns out, but the PAOK attacker presses well and sticks a foot in to nudge it into his team-mates’ path. The next line of PAOK’s press waits to spring forward.

They do just that, and Hearts are at a huge disadvantage. It’s 5v3 this time as the visitors advance menacingly toward goal.

Again, a simple pass is all it takes to slip in Zivkovic – and once again, only a strong stop from Clark prevents PAOK from extending their lead.

One last example, this time from the away leg. The tie is already all but over when Hearts win a free kick and throw bodies forward. Out of shot on the halfway line, Cochrane is the only player sitting back and PAOK have hauled everyone back to defend it.

The initial delivery from Alex Lowry is repelled, but only as far as Aidan Denholm on the edge of the area. He’s quickly dispossessed and the ball is shifted forward.

PAOK get men forward quickly and although there are a few maroon jerseys in close pursuit, the Greeks have the numbers as they advance into the final third.

Lowry allows his man to dart in behind just as the pass is played – and then the finish from Taison is composure personified.

Midfield

That brings us on to the midfield. The radar below shows how Hearts performed across a range of key passing metrics and once again, an initial glance is nothing to write home about.

The overall shape is largely similar, indicating a similar style in Europe and on the domestic front, but with one significant difference: in just about every category, Hearts are a few percentage points below the standard they set in the league last term.

The overall share of possession and distinct spells of possession are down, as you’d expect, and Hearts’ passes were more inaccurate. Deep completions and deep progressions take a noticeable dip, but the team’s passes inside the box are roughly the same as on league duty. A higher proportion of Hearts’ passes into the box are crosses, but they tend to be more inaccurate.

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Hearts’ pace to goal is slightly lower than it is in the league, but there were certainly instances across the four games when moving a little quicker up the park wouldn’t have gone amiss.

Here’s an example from the trip to Rosenborg. Hearts have a free kick near the halfway line, and the entire Rosenborg team are behind the ball. The back four pass it from side to side looking for an opening, but only the three highlighted Rosenborg players are required to keep Hearts at bay. The striker holds a central position, allowing the two centre-backs all the time in the world on the ball, and the two wingers shuffle over to prevent the full-backs from making inroads out wide.

Thirty seconds pass and very little has changed. Hearts have been working it from side to side, and they’re in virtually the exact same position as when they started.

Another 30 seconds go by and again, it turns into a game of spot the difference. Hearts have had the ball for over a minute at this point and they have gone absolutely nowhere.

Such spells of ponderous possession can be useful when trying to take the sting out of the game, and perhaps that’s what Naismith wanted his players to do. But if you give your opponents plenty of time to organise and constantly play safe, risk-free passes then you’re going to struggle to use the ball effectively.

That takes us onto our next point: making your own luck. We need to remember that when Hearts are competing in Europe, they are coming up against teams that are among the best in their respective countries. Teams like these are used to their opponents sitting back, taking few risks and daring them to break them down. Doing so simply plays into their hands. But seizing the initiative and posing some awkward questions? That can cause all sorts of uncertainty.

The Rosenborg game at Tynecastle is an excellent case in point. The 2-1 defeat in the first leg meant that Naismith’s men were going to have to have a go against the Norwegians, and that point was underlined when Izak Thorvaldsson put the visitors 1-0 up on the night early on in Gorgie.

Hearts took risks that night, and the end result was one of the most memorable European nights at Tynecastle in years. Just look at Hearts’ opening goal by way of example. Stephen Kingsley has the ball, and the defender has an opponent breathing down his neck and putting the hard press on him.

Kingsley tumbles to the floor at one point, and the Rosenborg player switches off for a half-second to protest his innocence. The referee doesn’t blow for a foul though, and Kingsley is soon back on his feet.

He’s bought himself a half-yard and that’s all he needs. He fizzes a pass down the wing, and it turns out to be an inch-perfect through ball for Lawrence Shankland. It was a highly risky pass with a very low probability of success, yet it gave Hearts the foothold they desperately needed in the tie.

Cammy Devlin would put Hearts 2-1 up shortly after the break and again the goal arrives thanks to one or two risky choices from those in maroon. Rosenborg have the ball at the back as the centre-half tries to play it into midfield, but Barrie McKay reads it and nips in to intercept.

McKay wins it and drifts forward unopposed, carefully choosing his moment to release Liam Boyce.

As it happens, the through ball is poor but fortunately for McKay, the Rosenborg defender’s interception is even worse as the ball is rolled into Shankland’s feet.

Hearts are now in. Shankland slides it over to Boyce, who has just one man to beat. Over on the right, Devlin realises he’s completely unmarked and makes a beeline for the box.

A neat shift from Boyce provides the forward with a sight of goal, and he has a pop. Devlin dutifully follows in, more out of hope than expectation – and when the goalkeeper spills the ball, the Aussie can hardly miss.

It was an apt example of what can be achieved when you decide to gamble. Teams at this level tend to want to control the game and play it on their terms, and injecting a little chaos into proceedings can make them very uncomfortable indeed. Devlin’s equaliser did just that, but even better was to follow.

It’s the 92nd minute, and it looks like the tie is going to extra-time when Devlin has the ball in the middle of the park. His marker decides to lunge in and the Hearts midfielder makes him look very silly with a neat backheel to dart beyond him. Devlin then decides to have a pop from distance – if you don’t buy a ticket and all that.

The shot isn’t great but Shankland does well to get it under control before nudging it back into Devlin’s path.

Devlin then does something that is usually inadvisable: the midfielder, who isn’t exactly renowned for his ability from long range, decides to have a go. One deflection later and he’s won a European tie in the most dramatic of circumstances.

Naismith likes his team to play controlled and measured football, but the downside of such an approach is that things can potentially turn pedestrian and stale. As anyone who watched Devlin that night will tell you, a little bit of chaos can go an awfully long way.

Attack

Hearts’ defensive and midfield stats are below the level that Naismith will want to be hitting but, one or two problem areas aside, they are largely okay and there is no need to man the panic stations. Unfortunately, though, the same cannot be said of the team’s attacking output.

The above radar shows how Hearts’ attack fared in Europe last season. In just about every area Hearts are performing at a level well below their league performances, and vast improvement is required.

Hearts’ average shot distance is the outlier and the team were largely testing the goalkeeper from decent positions, as the shot map below demonstrates. The big problem here isn’t where Hearts are shooting from; it’s that they aren’t having a go often enough.

This feeds into our previous point: if you don’t buy a ticket, you’re not going to win the raffle.

Then there’s attacking set-pieces. A quick glance at the radar will tell you that there has been a significant decline in the quantity and quality of deliveries from free-kicks and corners, and a new routine is probably required. But numbers only tell part of the story.

You see, Hearts were actually reasonably effective from set-plays in Europe last season. The problem is that the team’s approach doesn’t lend itself to statistical analysis. Naismith’s side tended to target the back post with high, looping deliveries but the next phase of play wasn’t to have a shot at goal.

Below are a couple of examples from the trip to Rosenborg. In the first, Hearts have won a free-kick and Lowry plays it in towards Frankie Kent in the centre.

Kent wins his header, but knocks it out to Shankland rather than directing it goalwards.

The captain then dinks it into the middle and Kye Rowles rises to meet it, but the Australian can’t generate enough power and the keeper catches it.

A few minutes pass and a similar opportunity presents itself. The free-kick is from a much deeper position but Hearts go for the same routine once more as the ball is lofted in. This time, Rowles flicks it on to Kingsley out wide.

Kingsley lets the ball roll across him before crossing it first time to the back post – and there’s Shankland, ready to steer the ball home.

That goal proved to be crucial in the tie, but it was also the last time that Hearts seriously threatened from a set-piece. In the following three games, it seems the opposition got wise to it and Hearts’ threat from dead-ball situations withered. A new routine is required this time around and if Naismith’s side can get it working, then it could make all the difference.