A draw at home to Ross County is not acceptable. Let’s make that clear.
Even on a run like this one – in fact, even more so given we are now into record-setting territory in terms of poor starts to the season.
But the fact is there were far more positive signs in Heart of Midlothian’s draw with Ross County than there had been in the few weeks before.
They were not without their criticisms either, especially in front of a packed Tynecastle Park against such opposition. Hearts were still too disposed to take the safe option and were vulnerable to counter attacks when they did.
As expected, Liam Fox lined up his side in a back four, though opted for a 4-3-3 over a 4-2-3-1.
B team captain Adam Forrester was brought in for his debut at right-back and Stephen Kingsley started on the left.
Both would stay wide in their own half but would often come inside after entering the opposition's, allowing Alan Forrest and Kenneth Vargas to stay wide and stretch the County back three.
Better chances created
Beni Baningime anchored the midfield, with Cammy Devlin and Jorge Grant looking to push up to link with Lawrence Shankland and attack the space.
It worked to an extent, certainly going by the chances created on the day. Hearts did enough to win the game.
The issue was taking them and, as pointed out by the interim manager, sometimes when confidence is low, it is more likely a player will overthink or take that extra split-second to decide – which can make all the difference.
By half-time, Hearts’ xG was 1.13 – higher than in any of their previous four 90 minutes in the Scottish Premiership.
The race chart shows that a lot of Hearts first-half xG came from Cammy Devlin’s chance that really should have been converted. If that goes in it is a different afternoon.
County's counters
For all their chance creation, there was still a vulnerability to Hearts. Especially on the counter and this is how Ross County took the lead.
Grant and Devlin would often commit forward, with the Hearts full-backs holding their position, and sometimes drifting more central, after entering the opposition half.
It meant that Baningime, the home side’s best player on the day, was left exposed at times though managed to make several excellent recovery tackles.
For Ross County’s opener after Grant gave up possession, Baningime again looked to have halted the counter by nicking the ball away, but it broke perfectly for Ronan Hale’s unstoppable strike.
Returning to xG briefly, Hale’s strike had a very low value, speaking to the quality of the striker’s finishing.
Most of County’s xG came from a flurry of chances from set plays early in the game – all in the same minute – and from Akil Wright’s late chance on the rare occasion they got up the pitch in the second half. Though they did threaten on the counter a fair few other times in the first half.
Something to build on
From a Hearts perspective, there was still too much passing between centre-backs Frankie Kent and Kye Rowles, natural to an extent given how defensively County approached the second half.
But even in the first half there was too much of a tendency to take the safe option, something else that is more common when confidence is low.
Had it been the first match of a new manager’s reign, there would have been more patience from the supporters as the new methods took hold.
There were more risks taken, more chances created – and better ones – even in that second half when County sat extremely deep.
It’s not the kind of thing fans want to hear, but if the club is about to embrace the brave new world of data analysis, it seems pertinent to point out that if you play that game 10 times, Hearts would win the majority of them.
That’s not something you could say about many games this season.
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