Heart of Midlothian are still in a strong position to progress from the Conference League knockout stage despite defeat to Heidenheim on Thursday night.

Hearts went into the encounter at Tynecastle Park with two wins from their opening two fixtures in the competition.

Victories over Omonia Nicosia and Dinamo Minsk meant that, realistically, the team needed just one point from their remaining four games to all but secure qualification to the knockout play-off stage in February at least. They had been given a 95.4 per cent chance of progress as one of the top 24 teams in the 36-team table.

The defeat 2-0 to Heidenheim saw Hearts drop to 15th in the Conference League standings. But the percentage chance of qualification dropped only slightly. As per Piotr Klimek via Football Rankings, Neil Critchley's men have a 93.5 per cent chance of progression.

If Hearts had turned a strong first-half performance into three points they would have a 99.9 per cent chance. 

Defeat made finishing in the top eight and earning progression to the last-16 more difficult. Hearts are given just a 5.9 per cent chance of earning the required points in the final games to achieve that. Placing ninth to 16th would ensure Hearts are seeded for the knockout play-off tie. They have a 46.6 per cent chance of doing so as per the simulations.

Next up for the Jam Tarts is a trip to face Cercle Brugge. The Belgian side have won, drawn, and lost one so far and currently sit mid-table in their domestic standings. Another away trip will follow it, this time to Copenhagen who have just two draws and a defeat from their fixtures so far. That game comes either side of a two-legged cup tie for the Danes against second-tier side Kolding IF.

Hearts wrap up their league phase campaign with a home tie against Moldovan side Petrocub who have the worst record in the competition so far having lost all three matches.