Twelve months ago Lawrence Shankland netted an impressive double in a 2-1 win for Heart of Midlothian over Motherwell heading into an international break during which he scored against Georgia. 

The goals were Shankland at his best. An instinctive flick inside the six-yard box at one end of Fir Park and a brilliantly composed finish at the other. In Tbilisi, it was a header having peeled to the back post.

Those goals all arrived not long after an eight-game spell without one.

During that spell he was not called up for Scotland for a friendly double-header allowing him a period of rest. Then, between games against Celtic at the end of October and the start of March, he went on a tear, scoring 22 in 23 appearances as Hearts motored away in third place.

Shankland was the difference between that comfortable finish behind the Old Firm and a much tougher battle for the third spot which brought league phase football in the Conference League.

This season, Shankland's struggles have mirrored his team's. His sole goal, a late header against Ross County, has punctuated a run of eight games without a goal to start the season and his current run of nine games without a goal for Hearts.

Understandably, following 28- and 31-goal seasons, his lack of goals this season and, subsequently, his form in general have been brought into sharp focus.

A number of theories have been put forward for the regression by fans and pundits. Everything from the player's conditioning to his future and the links with a move away in the summer to playing too deep. A definitive answer can only really be supplied by the player himself but let's shine some light on the season so far.

Firstly, look at the image below. One colour represents Lawrence Shankland last season in the Premiership and the other represents his season so far in the league. Which one is which?

The red is this season and the blue is last season. What it demonstrates is that in terms of the underlying numbers and stats there has been no huge drop off.

Shankland is getting more touches in the box, he is putting more pressure on opposition players and he is, in fact, one of the most creative players in the league.

Of players to have played at least 600 minutes in the Premiership (Shankland has played 1,223) only Celtic duo Alistair Johnston and Nicolas Kuhn have created clear-cut chances more regularly. And only Kuhn has more assists from open play.

We saw that creativity in his last outing at Ibrox, brilliantly collecting a long ball and slipping in Kenneth Vargas. Then there was his assist for the Costa Rican against St Mirren. There won't be a better pass in Scotland this season.

There has been a slight drop in the frequency of shots per 90 minutes and expected goals. But what about the stat that actually matters, goals?

He has scored just one league goal from an xG of nearly four. Contrast that with the same number of league games (13) last season. He had scored six from an xG figure of 5.50. He's underperforming in front of goal this campaign compared to performing as he should have done last season. 

Admittedly, it doesn't take stats to work that out, our eyes can tell us that has been the case, but for those curious below are his shot maps from this season (on the left) and last season (on the right) after 13 games.

Digging a bit deeper, reducing his shots down to those with an xG of 0.20 or above (efforts that a player would, on average, score one every five shots), not only has he failed to convert any of those higher value chances but the number of those chances have dropped significantly.

The stats demonstrate a player who is not all that different to last season - and that's before you add in the fact he is being dispossessed less regularly this term, his passing success rate is up and his average position on the field is similar to last campaign.

Yet, the eye test paints a very, very different story. And it's the eye test that is king to those turning up week to week. From a watching brief, it looks and feels like he is losing the ball more often, that his touch isn't as crisp or his decision making not as shrewd.

Take the St Johnstone game earlier this month as an example. Frankie Kent zipped a ball into Shankland who had dropped deep. The ball rebounded off his boot and ended up with an opponent on the edge of the Hearts box. In that game he also snatched at a chance you would have fancied him burying last season.

Fans will point to other games where it has been a tough watch, perhaps the loss to Kilmarnock at Tynecastle Park where his game was disjointed.

Then there are the complaints about his conditioning. It is often a cheap and easy criticism of a player without knowing the real story or details. He's not the most athletic footballer or the quickest but he features high in terms of distances covered by Hearts players on a weekly basis.

Now, let's put Neil Critchley and Steven Naismith before him to one side. Would Steve Clarke continue to call Shankland up for Scotland and then bring him on in a really important game, as he did against Poland during the week, if the player's conditioning is so bad or he's overweight - which he isn't - as some have suggested?

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The reason that is being brought up, why his performances in general are coming under more scrutiny, is down to the simple fact he is not putting the ball in the back of the net with the same regularity. Which, essentially, is what he's judged on. Even if he is still contributing with assists and chances all Hearts fans have known is Shankland scoring goals so when that stops it, understandably, leads to questions and in turn theories as to why it is the case.

Yet, there were games last season where Shankland had off days, days where he wasn't at it, notably the 1-0 win over Hibs at Easter Road. No one really remembers that performance or his missed penalty. They remember him slamming the ball into the top corner. That wasn't the only occasion that happened.

Now you have a player who Hearts are just as reliant on as last season and there is currently a difficulty in replacing him within the squad - no outfield Hearts player has played more minutes.

When it comes to his chances, those ones that he would be scoring last season, he's not been himself. He's dragging chances, snatching at efforts, failing to hit them cleanly. Aberdeen, St Johnstone, Heidenheim to name a few. It's like his radar is not working properly and it has thrown him. His awareness of where he is, where the goal is, where the opposition are situated appears off. 

Watching him last season he was able to work out situations quickly and react, finding the angles and spaces required to put the ball in the back of the net, whether it was up and over, through or around.

Perhaps it can be traced back to the summer and he is in the midst of a prolonged hangover. He played out of his skin for two seasons but didn't get a transfer his form deserved. He went to the Euros but didn't get a proper chance to shine and maybe put himself front and centre in the shop window. That may well have carried over to the start of the campaign and what we are witnessing is a player who is currently trying to emerge from the most difficult period since joining Hearts in the summer of 2022.

Shankland is a player who works on the mental side of his game but even with that, those players are still capable of going through difficult periods, their confidence taking a hit. Add in the fact Hearts as a collective have been struggling, which increases the pressure on Shankland more to break out of his goal-scoring funk and find the back of the net. The hope was it had arrived against Ross County but it never arrived. The 29-year-old cutting a frustrated figure has been a familiar sight.

It has had a snowball effect. He's not had the summer he may have envisaged, a slow start, the team being poor, more pressure on him to score, he doesn't and his confidence is knocked, and it keeps getting knocked with every chance he misses, the desperation for that goal increases, the pressure increases, yet there is no one else to really fall back on, especially when he is still contributing elsewhere. It's a vicious circle.

Now he's about to enter a key period personally as he nears the final six months of his Hearts deal. For the team, they remain in desperate need of their top scorer from the past two seasons especially with 10 games before the transfer window opens. They have made strides under Critchley but still find themselves second bottom and the head coach spoke of them not being a "nearly" team.

A firing Shankland would elevate this team to another level. He's not been as poor as many would have you believe, it's only more pronounced because of his waywardness in front of goal. And you would back someone with more than 200 career goals to find that last little bit. To find his finishing touch.  

You look back to the opposition who bookended that run of 22 goals in 23 games last season: Celtic. Well, look who is coming up next.