Heart of Midlothian have passed up two good opportunities this month to land a big European result and put themselves into a strong position to finish in the top eight of the league phase and earn passage into the Conference League last-16.
Yet, even with consecutive 2-0 defeats to Heidenheim and Cercle Brugge, Hearts are still given a very strong chance of progression to the knockout play-off stage.
The team dropped to 17th in the Conference League standings following last night's result, a fixture that saw the fans turn on captain Lawrence Shankland after his penalty miss when the score was 1-0 to Cercle Brugge. A win would have pushed them into the top eight depending on goal difference depending on the result.
According to projections from Football Rankings, a subscription site that specialises in permutations, Hearts have a 90.8 per cent chance of finishing in the top 24 spots which would bring a knockout play-off tie in February, thanks to wins over Dinamo Minsk and Omonia Nicosia.
To finish between 9th and 16th and earn a seeding for the play-off, the chances are rated at 24.4 per cent. And it's now just 2.3 per cent for reaching the top eight.
It is widely expected that seven points would guarantee progression to the knockout stage with six points also a possibility.
Hearts head to Denmark to face FC Copenhagen on December 12 before they welcome Moldovan side Petrocub to Tynecastle Park seven days later.
Getting a result in the Danish capital could be a tall order. Copenhagen require a win to ensure their own progression. They are currently on five points following their 2-1 win over Dinamo Minsk. Domestically, they are top of the Superligaen after 16 matches.
It means the final fixture against Petrocub could prove crucial. The Moldovans picked up their first point of the league phase, drawing against Istanbul Basaksehir in Turkey. They are 13 points off the top in Moldova.
The play-off round of the knockout stage will see the teams finishing 9th to 16th playing those teams placed 17th to 24th. The ties are scheduled for February 13 and 20.
Playing in the knockout play-off round is worth €200,000 with each place in the league phase standings worth €38,000. Teams finishing between 9th and 24th will earn between €784,000 at the top end and €364,000 at the bottom.
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