Why a substitution hurt Hearts in derby draw - but not Lowry

With Hibs lining up in a 4-4-2 formation and Hearts opting for a 4-2-3-1, the hosts had the numerical advantage in the middle – and they certainly made the most of it. Cammy Devlin and Calem Nieuwenof sat a little deeper, freeing up space for Alex Lowry to operate in between the Hibs midfield and defence, and the team soon gained the upper hand.

When Alan Forrest’s long-range thunderbolt screamed into the top corner to ensure Hearts went into the break with a one-goal lead to defend, Hibs could have no complaints. The strike was sublime, sure, but it had also been coming as Hearts heaped pressure onto their city rivals. The men in maroon were dominating the ball – all the while keeping their opponents at an arm’s length – and were routinely fashioning good goal-scoring opportunities. An injury to Stephen Kingsley was the only real cause for concern from an otherwise excellent first half in Gorgie.

Hearts maintained that momentum upon the restart and it wasn’t long until they had doubled their advantage. There was a slice of fortune about it – Lowry’s low ball into the Hibs box was inadvertently turned into David Marshall’s goal by the outstretched leg of Christian Doidge, with the ricochet giving the former Scotland internationalist no chance of stopping it – but it was no less than Hearts deserved.

READ MORE: Steven Naismith on defensive disappointment, Alex Lowry sub and Alan Forrest - Q&A

Then, it happened. In one moment, Hearts were two up and seemingly cruising to victory; the next, and Hibs had somehow drawn themselves level. A poor clearance from Beni Baningime, who had been brought on to replace Lowry only a few minutes earlier, allowed the visitors to win the ball back on the edge of the box. The ball was prodded through Toby Sibbick’s legs and Elie Youan took full advantage of the subsequent one-on-one to reduce the arrears, and just 82 seconds later the same two players had a crucial role in the equaliser. Sibbick was relatively well placed to deal with a low cross but his backheeled clearance Youan to gleefully rifle the ball past Zander Clark for 2-2.

There were a few chances for either side thereafter, and a deflected Kye Rowles shot that rattled the crossbar was as close as Hearts or Hibs came to finding a winner. The home side had lost the impressive attacking mojo that was on display during the first half, though, and the boos that rang out around Tynecastle at the full-time whistle told their own story.

Hearts supporters will rightly feel aggrieved by the final result. Their team were the better side but they somehow allowed their rivals to get back into the derby when it looked as though it was all sewn up. As Naismith himself noted during his post-match interview, the two dropped points were ‘nothing to do with Hibs’. “It’s us,” he said. “A minute and a half has just cost us what was a controlled and comfortable performance where we carried a threat the whole time.”

Naismith came in for flak on social media in the immediate aftermath of Saturday’s game as the post-mortems began in earnest. A common criticism was that he had got his subs wrong by bringing on Baningime for Lowry minutes before those remarkable 82 seconds, ceding control in the middle of the park and inviting pressure on the defence. Youan’s brace, the argument went, was the inevitable result of such a ploy.

There is perhaps some truth to that. When Hearts were chasing a winner for the last 20 minutes or so, Lowry was conspicuous by his absence. Without the on-loan Rangers playmaker pulling the strings, Hearts lacked creativity in the final third and the prospect of a third goal was remote. After the match, Naismith explained that the decision was made because Lowry was tiring – understandable, given he hasn’t started too many games of late – but there is an argument to be made that it was an earlier substitution that ultimately cost Hearts.

It's no secret that Hearts are short of options at the back just now. Injuries to Craig Halkett, Alex Cochrane and Nathaniel Atkinson have meant that the defence has often picked itself in recent weeks, and so Naismith’s hands are tied to an extent. Having said that, the Hearts boss had one decision to make at the back on Saturday – and, in hindsight, it’s one that he didn’t get right.

When Kingsley pulled up with a groin injury towards the end of the first half, Naismith had two options. He could either bring on Andy Halliday at left-back, or he could reshuffle the entire back four. Sibbick would move to right centre-half, Frankie Kent would shift over to the left of the pairing, Rowles would slot in at left-back and Odel Offiah would come on on the right. Naismith opted for the latter option.

READ MORE: Alan Forrest on Hearts derby disappointment and his moment of magic - Q&A

The result? Rather than having one player playing the remainder of the game in an unfamiliar role – Halliday is, after all, a midfielder by trade, even if he is versatile – Hearts now had two. Offiah and Kent were comfortable enough, but Sibbick and Rowles were now playing in completely different positions.

Sibbick has played at centre-half on plenty of occasions and has usually looked fine, but there is no getting around the fact that the Englishman was directly involved in both of Youan’s goals. Rewriting history with counterfactuals can often be reductive, but the question must be asked nonetheless: if it were Kent playing at right centre-back, and he found himself in the same position as Sibbick was for both goals, would he have gifted the ball away in a similar fashion? It seems unlikely.

There was another knock-on effect of the reshuffle at the back. Rowles’ athleticism was surely what convinced Naismith to shift the Australian to full-back but there was an obvious downside to the gambit, too: Rowles simply doesn’t possess the same level of technical ability as Kingsley.

There could be few criticisms about the way in which Rowles dutifully motored up and down the left flank, but it also quickly became apparent that that all-important final ball was lacking. More than once, Rowles found himself rampaging forward to join the attack in good positions but never made the most of them. At times, Hearts seemed reluctant to get Rowles on the ball in the final third and the end result was that he offered little in an attacking sense. Naismith’s men became more predictable when they advanced forward, and Hibs were able to hold on for a point without giving up many more clear-cut chances.

Supporters were understandably keen to point the finger at someone in the aftermath of the derby and the buck naturally stops with Naismith. Both Hibs goals were the results of individual errors that Naismith couldn’t have legislated for but at the same time, the decisions taken earlier in the game surely played their part too. Big decisions often decide the final outcome of the Edinburgh derby – but on this occasion, it was a seemingly innocuous one that ultimately proved costly to Hearts.