What a difference a week can make in football. It wasn’t so long ago that Heart of Midlothian supporters were looking nervously at the fixture list and the run of games that lay in wait; now, there is a sense of relish about the next few fixtures. Back-to-back away wins against Kilmarnock and Ross County have lifted the mood music around Gorgie at an opportune moment, given Saturday’s Edinburgh derby is looming fast.
Steven Naismith and his coaching staff will rightly feel satisfied with their week’s work. A League Cup semi-final against Rangers next month gives fans something to look forward to, while the weekend’s 1-0 victory in Dingwall saw Hearts rise to fourth in the cinch Premiership standings – not bad at all for a team where performances have been up and down thus far.
Naismith was rewarded for the tactical decisions he made during the win over Kilmarnock in midweek. The introduction of Jorge Grant to the starting XI led to a greater fluency in the final third and Hearts started the game strongly, taking a well-earned lead through the midfielder in the first half. Naismith’s decision to change the shape to a back three after Derek McInnes’ side had levelled through Brad Lyons essentially stemmed the tide and interrupted the hosts’ momentum, and substitutes Odel Offiah, Liam Boyce and Alex Lowry all played their part in the dramatic winning goal.
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The shape
The Killie win was a game that was well-managed by Hearts, and Saturday’s trip to Dingwall was no different. Again, there was a big call before kick-off. Naismith decided against going for the 4-2-3-1 formation that appears to be his preferred way of playing, instead opting for a 3-5-2. Stephen Kingsley and Offiah would provide the width on either flank in front of a back three of Kye Rowles, Frankie Kent and Toby Sibbick. Calem Nieuwenhof would sit at the base of midfield and his two partners in the middle, Aidan Denholm and Jorge Grant, were given license to drift forward. Lawrence Shankland and Kenneth Vargas led the line in attack, with the latter trying to use his pace to stretch the game whenever the opportunity arose.
The thinking was sound. Ross County’s 3-4-1-2 shape and the manner in which they play isn’t entirely dissimilar to McInnes’ Kilmarnock, and the extra man in defence did a fine job of nullifying Killie’s threat in midweek. Naismith clearly felt he required the same sort of security at the Global Energy Stadium and the head coach was proven right. County’s front pairing of Alex Samuel and Jordan White barely had a sniff before being hauled off at the break – and their replacements, Simon Murray and Eamonn Brophy, didn’t fare much better. Malky Mackay’s men struggled to get in behind Hearts’ backline throughout the game and the end result was that Zander Clark was largely untroubled in the visitors’ goal.
By full-time, County had only mustered a single shot on target from nine attempts in total, a looping header from distance that the Hearts goalkeeper saw the whole way and had no chance of dropping in. There was an opportunity right at the death for Brophy as he latched on to Jack Baldwin’s knockdown from a free-kick – the striker drove the ball into the ground and it bounced harmlessly over the bar – but this shouldn’t be too much of a concern, given it was kitchen-sink time for County. The back three, aided by some excellent defensive recovery from Nieuwenhof on occasion, kept their opponents at an arm’s length throughout the contest – just as it did at Rugby Park – and both Naismith and the defenders deserve credit for the ploy paying off.
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Getting forward
Hearts’ shape provided the team with a solid defensive platform to build on, but the big challenge was always going to come at the other end of the pitch. Naismith’s side have been guilty of having possession for possession’s sake at times this season – particularly in the first half of games – and lacking creativity in the middle. An opening half in Dingwall where Hearts had peppered the Ross County goal with shots from half-chances suggested history was repeating itself in the Highlands as the two teams went into the break with the game goalless.
There were some positive signs, however. Unlike the previous weekend’s defeat to St Mirren, Hearts’ defenders and central midfielders found themselves afforded more time on the ball when building out from the back. As Ross County’s pressure map below shows, the hosts were largely happy for the aforementioned players to have the ball and mainly sought about winning it back in their wing-back areas. Kingsley took advantage of this and did well to pass and receive the ball further up the left but on the right, Offiah struggled to get beyond his man.
County’s apparent reluctance to press in central areas allowed Hearts to push further up the park and gain valuable territory in Dingwall. St Mirren showed that Naismith’s men can be stifled if they are pressed aggressively before players are allowed to turn in midfield but County practically did the opposite by sitting off and inviting pressure. It meant that Hearts’ midfielders had time on the ball and as the xG chart below shows, the team steadily accrued low-scoring opportunities. Something had to change if the team were to fashion better chances, though. With 56 minutes on the clock, Naismith made his move.
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The changes
The opening 56 minutes hadn’t been a disaster by any stretch. Hearts were seeing a lot of the ball and were in control, but lacked that all-important penetration in the final third. They were seeing lots of the ball in midfield and being afforded time to pick the next pass, but the final execution wasn’t always there. And, similarly to the St Mirren game, the attack had been pretty lopsided and so became predictable. Hearts needed two things: a creative player to make the most of County’s lack of pressing in the middle, and a more offensive option for the right wing to stretch the play. In Alex Lowry and Alan Forrest, Naismith had exactly that. Look back at the xG race chart and you'll notice that the majority of the xG Hearts generated throughout the match came after this point.
The pass maps below highlight the issue nicely. The bigger a dot, the more passes a player completed, and the thickness of the lines in between the dots represents the frequency of passes between each player. The graphic on the left shows the passing network for the first half, and the one on the right shows how this changed in the second.
A couple of things jump out immediately. Firstly, notice how the dots are now more or less the same size, indicating an even spread of play and a more direct approach. Secondly, we can see Shankland dropping deeper, hoping to draw an opposing defender out of position and freeing up some more space. Denholm was stretching the play on the left before he was brought off, and Forrest did the same on the right to great effect. The former Ayr United winger was told to get in behind left wing-back Ben Purrington and did so repeatedly, coming close to scoring twice before eventually getting that all-important goal for Hearts with 20 minutes to go.
Forrest was brought on to stretch the play down the right, and did so admirably. He got on the end of the delivery from deep to loop the ball over Ross Laidlaw and it was the winger’s fellow substitute Lowry that provided the assist. Taking up a position in that central midfield area where County were so reluctant to put pressure on their opponents, the playmaker was afforded the freedom of Dingwall as he curled in an inch-perfect cross to break the deadlock. Even before that moment of magic, Lowry was attempting first-time through balls to the forwards whenever the opportunity arose, taking some much-needed risks in possession and upping the visitors’ tempo.
The picture above shows where Lowry received the ball from Kingsley during the build-up to the winning goal. The loanee creates the space initially by dropping deep and when he collects the ball, there are acres of space around him. Scott Allardice is bearing down on him but the County player is running at an angle – one touch inside, and Lowry will have an opportunity to play the ball anywhere he wants to.
And that’s exactly what happens. The lack of pressure in midfield gives the Rangers loanee time and space to plot his next move, and his delivery in behind the Ross County defence is exquisite. Forrest has already beat his marker for pace at this point and simply needs to continue his run to be afforded a free effort at goal.
It was an apt demonstration of what Hearts had largely been lacking up until that point in Dingwall, and it proved to be the game’s decisive moment. Moreover, it showed a tactical nous on Naismith’s part, with the head coach correctly identifying and providing a solution to the biggest problem facing his team on Saturday afternoon. Once they got the goal, Naismith shored up the midfield by bringing on Andy Halliday and while Ross County enjoyed most of the ball thereafter, they didn't seriously threaten an equaliser until Brophy's late miss.
Just like the Tuesday before it, Naismith got his in-game decisions spot on and while the overall performance wasn’t perfect, it did represent another welcome step in the right direction. Naismith has some big decisions to make ahead of and during the upcoming derby. And the good news for Hearts fans is that he is developing a happy habit of getting them right.
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