What Hearts can expect from Nick Montgomery's Hibs

For context, during that time Hibs have hosted the first league derby on 22 occasions, losing seven. 

It is a game which comes with defining qualities. Both teams are under relatively new management. It will be Steven Naismith's fifth match as the official head coach following his interim and technical coach roles. It will also be Nick Montgomery's fifth since replacing Lee Johnson in September.

READ MORE: Hibs are the perfect opponent for Lawrence Shankland to break Hearts drought

For Naismith, a win will provide more credit in the bank as he looks to build on back-to-back away wins and put the team's inconsistent and at times frustrating start to the campaign behind them. Three points for the away side can propel them further forward under new management, feeding into the feel-good factor which is steadily building.

The Edinburgh derby has been a maligned fixture in some quarters over recent years due to a lack of excitement and/or quality. However, there is every chance it will be a captivating clash in EH11.

In recent weeks Hearts Standard have explored Steven Naismith's men, some of the issues and the signs of progression. But what can the team expect on Saturday? Where are the areas of danger? And where can Hearts find joy?

How Hibs set-up?

Hibs have played 4-4-2 in each of Montgomery's four games since arriving in Leith. It is a formation that he used previously with Central Coast Mariners and one which allows him to get four of his five primary attackers in the line-up, namely Martin Boyle, Elie Youan, Dylan Vente then one of Christian Doidge or Adam Le Fondre.

It is very unlikely he will switch systems but the intrigue will be on how they approach the game. Opponents have found joy against Hearts by sitting deep, remaining compact and then hitting on the break quickly. Hibs, through the blistering pace of Youan and Boyle, have the capacity to do just that. But they are untested, especially under Montgomery, of sitting in that shape which would put pressure on the defence who have struggled with crosses in open play - only Dundee have conceded more from such situations.

At times they have faced similar issues to Hearts with regards to breaking teams down. They have had 62 per cent of the ball in their past two matches and 54 per cent in the two prior. 

READ MORE: Scoring against Hibs and dealing with Romanov: Velicka's Hearts story

How do Hearts and Hibs compare?

The following three graphs from StatsBomb paint a vivid picture which we can learn plenty from.

Defensively, Hearts are more aggressive out of possession. Still they are expected to have conceded more than Hibs, perhaps owed to opposing teams getting more clear cut chances as shown by the shot distance and the fact both give up the same number of shots (11 per 90 minutes).

In possession, Hearts are much more pass-orientated with a higher average possession. They have had 67 sequences of 10 or more passes, the most outside of the Old Firm. Hibs have the next highest with 38. They look to progress the play quicker. Not a surprise with Youan and Boyle. Without Barrie McKay, Hearts don't possess players who are keen to dribble and take on opponents.

As for the attack, Hibs have posed more of a goal threat and are more dangerous on the counter. It's as simple as that. 

How Hibs play?

Hibs are quite expansive. In possession they will push the full-backs high and wide with the attacking wide men moving in field and joining in with the strikers. We can see from the pass network and average positions how narrow Youan (and Tavares) and Boyle can get, even if the latter stayed wider in the 0-0 draw with Dundee who played a back three compared to St Johnstone's back four.

The choice of left full-back will likely be telling on how attacking Hibs plan to be from the start of Saturday's fixture. Jordan Obita is a more forward-thinking option than Lewis Stevenson, the veteran defender.

Due to the demands of the 4-4-2 and the attacking players on show, much is asked of Joe Newell and Jimmy Jeggo in the middle of the park. They have built a good partnership so far but they have to undertake lots of work out of possession and even in possession. The latter will drop between the two centre-backs to get on the ball, while Newell is more of a playmaker who, if given time, will clip balls into the forwards or over the top.

Hibs tend to grow into the game, posing their biggest threat around the hour mark.

The threat

Hibs have more attacking variety than Hearts at the moment. Doidge is a target man option, while Vente and Le Fondre are intelligent, hard-working strikers who can drop in and combine, also pulling centre-backs out of position. Vente has an impressive goals-to-shots ratio so far.

Yet, it is Youan and Boyle who remain such dangerous opponents. The former has created 15 chances from carries and the latter 11. Hearts' highest chance creator from carrying the ball forward? Alex Lowry on five. 

Hearts will need to be very wary of the winger coming in from the opposite side. It is a key ploy. For example, if the ball is being worked down the right they can look to cut it back to the wide man on the opposite side drifting in and shooting from central areas in the box.

Additionally, Hibs are a threat from set plays. They have recorded the second highest xG (3.52) in the league. Hearts are the second lowest at 1.62. The Easter Road side also have the second lowest xG against. They use inswinging corners and often look to isolate one of their centre-backs at the back post with two forwards stationed in the six-yard box for scraps.

READ MORE: The story of Hearts' 22-game unbeaten run against Hibs

Areas of weakness

While opponents have been willing to let Hearts have the ball, that's certainly not the case the other way around. Nasimith's side make it difficult for teams to play. The opposition have averaged a 61 per cent pass success rate, the lowest in the league, while the Gorgie side have recorded the best PPDA (passes per defensive action). Effectively, opponents make few passes before Hearts engage.

That is a quality which Hibs won't like coming up against, on two fronts. Firstly, the visitors like to play out from the back, trying to open space for their front four further up the pitch. But they have found difficulties when coming up against an aggressive press.

On the flipside, due to the attacking nature of Montgomery's side, if Hearts win the ball they will have space to attack, behind the midfield and down the sides of the centre-backs. That could play into the hands of someone like Kenneth Vargas if he is played through the middle. He can drift and take advantage of those wide spaces. 

READ MORE: Hearts v Hibs: How to prepare for an Edinburgh derby

It may force Montgomery's hand to play Doidge to provide an option for the long ball to evade the Hearts press.

As mentioned higher up, Hibs have had struggles defending crosses from open play and from preventing them coming into the box. That will suit Shankland if Hearts can get width high up the pitch. 

There have also been question marks over goalkeeper David Marshall. While Hearts keeper Zander Clark is one of the most effective shot stoppers having prevented 2.9 goals above average, the fourth best record in the league, David Marshall is on -0.7, the Premiership's worst record.

All in all, it is set up to be an engrossing encounter. It may not be on television - again - but it will be a sold-out raucous affair with plenty of narrative and even more on-field intrigue in terms of decisions to make, match-ups and the potential for heroes and villains.