Tactics, defensive numbers, lop-sided attack - Hearts season so far

Over the next two days our writers will be looking back at the campaign until this point to see what we have learned.

First up is James Cairney on Steven Naimsith's tactical flexibility, the impressive defensive numbers, but something also to be wary of, and a look at how the team have attacked.

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Tactical versatility

Most fixtures this season have seen Hearts line up in the 4-2-3-1 formation, that appears to be Naismith’s preferred way of playing, but that is not to say that the former Scotland internationalist is wedded to this particular shape. We have often seen Naismith tinker with the team’s shape during games to counteract an opponent’s specific threat, and this versatility can only be a good thing.

Naismith regularly talks about certain players being especially suited to certain games, and so we can deduce that the same logic applies to the team as a whole. Some supporters are clamouring for the team to play the same way every week, regardless of the opposition, to force their opponents to adapt to Hearts’ style of play, but this is a luxury few teams can afford. Hearts aren’t one of them.

If the team were operating as a well-oiled machine in the 4-2-3-1, then such calls would be understandable. But the honest truth is that while Hearts are dominating the ball when using this system, they aren’t always scoring goals. This means that Naismith has to be reactive on occasion, and that pragmatism shouldn’t be scoffed at – particularly when many members of the squad are comfortable in a variety of positions.

That versatility gives Naismith what managers crave: options. When things aren’t going well, it’s vital to have a Plan B, and Hearts appear to have just that. We’ve often seen the team switch to a back three, or the midfield reshuffled to add another playmaker or defensive midfielder, or the attackers shifting from a wide front three to a narrow one. Sometimes the calls have paid off; sometimes they have backfired.

Naismith has come under fire for his substitutions in the derby – and there might well be some truth to the notion that his changes cost Hearts against Hibs – and his selections have raised eyebrows on occasion (such as the bold decision to line up without a right winger away to St Mirren) but there have been other matches that have been won by the former Kilmarnock, Rangers and Everton striker’s in-game decisions.

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The move to switch to a back three in the 2-1 win at Rugby Park in the quarter-finals of the League Cup, for instance, stemmed the tide at a time when the momentum had shifted towards Derek McInnes’ men and played a crucial role in the victory. Bringing on Alex Lowry and Alan Forrest at Ross County, meanwhile, was an apt demonstration of Naismith identifying in-game issues and finding a solution. The pair had barely been on the park for 10 minutes before they combined for the only goal of the game.

Naismith won’t get every decision right – such is the life of a manager, particularly one who is relatively inexperienced – but supporters can take heart from the fact that the head coach isn’t afraid to be proactive in an attempt to swing a match in his side’s favour. If Hearts can become comfortable playing in two or three different systems and switching between them in-game as and when required, then they should have the answers for any questions their opponents might throw up.

Defence looking good – but bigger tests lay ahead

Hearts’ problems in the final third this season have been well-documented but at the other end of the pitch, things have been running relatively smoothly. At this early stage of the Premiership season, no team has conceded fewer goals than Naismith’s. Part of that is down to the fixture list, though, as Hearts are the only top-flight team still to face Celtic and Rangers, the league’s top-scoring teams. The next few matches should give us a better appraisal of the defence, and it will surely be tested strenuously by Glasgow’s big two.

You can only play who is in front of you, though, and Hearts have largely done a pretty good job of shackling their opponents. Hibs are the only domestic team to have scored more than once against Naismith’s men this term, and many of the goals that have been conceded this season have been down to individual errors rather than any structural issues. That’s still not ideal, of course – and it won’t provide much comfort to fans who watched Hearts surrender a two-goal lead in the derby last weekend – but it is certainly better than the cause of the conceded goals being the other way around.

The arrival of Frankie Kent surely plays a big part here. The Englishman has probably been the pick of the summer signings, and he has wasted no time in establishing himself as a key figure at the back for Hearts. His prowess in the air and ability to organise the defence have quickly endeared the centre-half to supporters, but it is perhaps his consistency that has been most noteworthy. Since joining from Peterborough United, the 27-year-old has barely put a foot wrong and his calm and composed presence at the back has been a most welcome addition.

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It’s worth remembering, too, that Naismith has often found himself chopping and changing things at the back through no fault of his own. Alex Cochrane missed the first three games of the league campaign due to suspension, then came back into the starting line-up at left-back before an injury forced him out of the team again. Stephen Kingsley was back to his best before he was stretchered off against Hibs and the full-back will presumably be out for the foreseeable, and Nathaniel Atkinson picked up an injury against St Mirren which could keep him out for the foreseeable future. Craig Halkett remains on the comeback trail, meaning Toby Sibbick and Odel Offiah have been in and out of the team to cover for the absentees. Things haven’t always gone entirely to plan but amid all the disruption, Hearts’ defensive record – domestically, at least – remains impressive.

Is it sustainable though? The data suggests not. Hearts are currently conceding 0.63 goals per league outing but their opponents are generating around 0.94 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes. That’s still one of the lowest rates in the division but it also suggests that the team ought to be conceding more than they are. The upcoming fixtures against Celtic and Rangers should provide a decent barometer of how good the defence truly is – and show Naismith exactly what areas of the team’s work off the ball require more work.

Lopsided attack

It’s no secret that Hearts have struggled for creativity going forward at times this season, despite bossing the possession in most of their games so far. The introduction of Jorge Grant, Lowry and Forrest to the team in recent weeks has certainly helped in that regard and there have been encouraging signs that the team are moving in the right direction, but there is also a problem position: left wing.

There is a Barrie McKay-shaped hole in this team at present, and no one else in the squad has quite managed to fill it while the mercurial 28-year-old returns to fitness. Lowry, Forrest, Cochrane and Kenneth Vargas have been tried out there to varying degrees of success but Naismith is still to find a proper solution.

Of the 18 goals that Hearts have scored in all competitions this season, only three have come from successful attacks down the left in open play: Lawrence Shankland’s goal away to Rosenborg as he got on the end of Kingsley’s cross; the same two players combining for Hearts’ first goal in the reverse fixture; and Liam Boyce’s goal against Aberdeen, which all started with Forrest getting in behind Slobodan Rubezic on the left.

It results in a lopsided approach to matches – and it’s something opposing teams appear to be getting wise to. Earlier in the season, Kingsley was being afforded more time on the ball and the full-back was able to move it forward but as the season has progressed, he has found his options limited. The 29-year-old has been seeing a lot of the ball but often finds himself being aggressively pressed by the opposition and has nowhere to go. The 1-0 defeat away to St Mirren was probably the most glaring example.

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The return of McKay will hopefully solve this problem but Naismith will have to find an interim solution. Lowry is the most like-for-like replacement in the squad but the Rangers loanee has struggled to influence games when playing on the left wing, and his performance in the derby – his best since arriving at Tynecastle – came at No.10. Vargas and Forrest have both looked more effective out on the right, and Grant’s best displays this season have come when he plays through the middle.

Kingsley’s injury in the derby necessitates a change in tack down the left anyway, but it is an area where Hearts must threaten more.