Hearts under Steven Naismith analysed in eight graphs

Hearts will return to action against Celtic in the Scottish Premiership on Sunday before games with Rangers and Livingston ahead of the Viaplay Cup semi-final next month. 

Scout and analyst Tom Irving, takes a deeper look at some key stats from the first eight games of the 2023/24 league season to try to better understand the performances put in by Steven Naismith's men.

Effective off the ball

It’s not often that you want to see yourself where Hearts feature in this scatter graph, but on this occasion, it could be a positive. While there’s not strictly a 'good' section to the graph, the company the team share the area with bodes well. 

PPDA stands for Passes Per Defensive action. It shows how many passes the opposition make between each tackle, interception, or foul in the final attacking 60 per cent of the pitch and can show us how intensely a team presses.  

Aggressive actions are tackles, pressures, or fouls that a team makes within two seconds of the opposition player receiving the ball anywhere on the pitch. 

These two metrics combined can show us how effectively teams use both their shape to force the opposition to make unforced errors, and how well they use the aggressive press to their advantage. Hearts may rarely press aggressively, but that’s because when they do, they do it well, so they win the ball back without needing a lengthier aggressive press. They also hold a good defensive shape, and often force teams to try adventurous longer balls instead of retaining possession. They wait in good shape for the right time to press, and when the time comes, they execute. This is something Hearts teams of the past struggle with when visiting certain venues in Glasgow, and something Naismith will hopefully address with more composure on the ball in the bigger games. 

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Getting the ball back

When Hearts lose the ball, they instantly try to win it back, and more often than most, they are successful. Counter pressures are when the opposition is pressured within 5 seconds of Hearts losing the ball. This may explain further the 'lack' of aggressive actions mentioned previously.

Hearts win it back often, so regularly don’t need a very lengthy press. When the ball is not won, Hearts stop the counter press and revert to good shape to make the opponent give up possession. 

Good possession or possession for the sake of it?

While Hearts have a possession percentage which is nearly on par with the Old Firm, they also have the third most touches in the opposition box. Previously, Hearts have been accused of playing passenger football, with an abundance of backwards and sideways passes. Now, Hearts are getting a lot of touches inside the opposition box. What is lacking though, is the cutting edge to play the important final ball or to get a dangerous shot away. Barrie McKay has been an ever-present provider of that final bit of creativity. There is no doubt the team has missed his creative spark but Alex Lowry presented his case in the derby to step up and be the trusted replacement. 

Fast to goal or just direct? 

Hearts enjoy a good amount of possession in dangerous areas and are taking more direct routes to goal but are still slightly lacking in the speed that they move towards goal. This sounds bad but the other teams in the same area as Hearts are the other sides that top the possession table. It’s understandable that the pace towards goal is slower for teams who enjoy possession and often play against teams sitting in a low block. It takes time to break the opposition down but when Hearts do, they do so through a direct route. This doesn’t just mean playing long balls over the top, it could be that it is done via a quick one-two through the middle or down the wing, where the likes of Aberdeen play across the pitch as they go forward. 

Directness isn’t exactly an indicator of good or bad but it helps to understand the style in which the team play. 

READ MORE: Naismith, Shankland role, missed opportunity - Hearts season so far

Not shooting enough or in need of shooting practice? 

Hearts certainly aren’t struggling with taking shots and don’t seem afraid to shoot on sight. Naismith's men take the third most shots in the league, the second most shots immediately after a high press has given us possession of the ball and the third most shots from counter attacks, yet only Ross County and St Johnstone have scored fewer goals. 

With Shankland being partially off the boil in front of goal and the missing McKay, it’s apparent that the team lack both the creation of clear-cut chances and the exceptional finishing. 

Pass or take it for a run

OBV, or on ball value, can show us the quality of value added to the team in different scenarios. We compare the OBV provided by teams passing to their dribbling and carrying of the ball. 

With the likes of Motherwell proving to be effective at passing but highly ineffective at dribbling, Livingston showing the opposite, and St Johnstone showing, well, not much really, Hearts are in a much better place. There is a pretty identical passing and dribbling value to Hibs who have scored the second most goals this season. Both sit below only Celtic and Rangers. 

Again, this shows that Hearts are doing a lot right on the ball and really emphasises the need for more quality in the penalty area.

READ MORE: Foundation of Hearts chief on protests and board decision making

Corner concern

Now lastly, something that has probably united the Hearts fans more than anything else in recent times: our lack of danger from attacking corners. 

With Craig Halkett missing through injury for the better part of a year, Hearts have lacked the key to both attacking and defending of corners. While the quality of delivery is somewhat uniform across most of the league, the team still manage to sit very low on both the goals scored and shots taken per corner. 

After looking at the obvious champions of these metrics, Dundee, two main differences become evident. Dundee never hit the first man. They focus on a slower but more consistent ball into an area between the six-yard box and penalty spot. This allows them to anticipate the ball and get on the end of it. 

This is only made effective through the second difference: committed and successful aerial players like Joe Shaughnessy and Ricky Lamie. These two amongst others do anything to get their head on the ball or at worst challenge the person who does. This may be what Hearts are lacking in order to attempt this tactic. 

A whipped ball is more dangerous but is more prone to error. If the team proceeds with this type of corner, then a ball winner on a front post run is required. As Hearts don’t have an abundance of those available, floated balls into the danger area with bodies in front of the opposition keeper to stop him coming to collect the cross may still be a better option. 

Tom Irving is a PFSA Level 2 Talent ID Certified Scout and Analyst. He works with Scottish League Two side Stranraer and Us Mondorf of Luxembourg. You can follow him on X @IrvingAnalysis