Analysis: Where Hearts got it wrong against Celtic

The league leaders were the favourites, naturally, but fans could be forgiven for going into this match harbouring hopes of a statement win over Brendan Rodgers’ side. After all, Celtic are not the all-conquering team that they were under Ange Postecoglou last season and if Hearts played to the best of their ability, then they could make life very uncomfortable for the champions.

That didn’t happen, though. Less than three minutes had been played before Hearts found themselves behind. When Celtic doubled their advantage midway through the first half, it became abundantly clear that the game-plan required an urgent rethink. That same plan would be torn up just six minutes into the second half when Kyogo Furuhashi put the visitors 3-0 up and although Lawrence Shankland reduced the arrears with 25 minutes to go, the match was already all but settled. Tomoki Iwata then added a fourth for Celtic with 10 minutes left to play to further compound Hearts’ misery.

Hearts were decidedly second-best from the get-go on Sunday afternoon, and the comprehensive nature of the defeat will only heap pressure on Naismith. If Hearts are serious about establishing themselves as Scotland’s third force and closing the gap on the Old Firm, then gaining points in these fixtures is an absolute must. But they didn’t even come close at Tynecastle.

So, where did it all go wrong then? Let’s take a look.

READ MORE: Lawrence Shankland on Celtic warning, goal drought and Rangers reaction - Q&A

Individual errors and poor pressing

Hearts’ work off the ball has been one of the more impressive aspects of the team this season, but much of that good work was absent against Celtic. The team’s defensive structure has generally kept the opposition at bay this term and limited them to chances with a relatively low xG, but it was unable to deal with Celtic’s attacking nous on Sunday. Rodgers’ men are a step above the rest of the Premiership when it comes to finding and exploiting gaps in the opposition backline, as they aptly demonstrated in Gorgie.

All four goals conceded were the result of Hearts players being in the wrong position. For the first, Calem Niuewenhof simply failed to track the run of Matt O’Riley, allowing the Denmark Under-21 internationalist a sight at goal that should never have arisen in the first place. The finish was sublime, but quite how the league’s top scorer and most in-form player was afforded the opportunity should be a cause for real concern. Nieuwenhof was again involved in Celtic’s second goal, cheaply surrendering possession in the first instance with a slack backpass that was hoovered up by Maeda. Both Nieuwenhof and Alex Cochrane were drawn to Reo Hatate in the next phase of play, leaving O’Riley in acres of space at the edge of Hearts’ area. Two passes later and the ball was in the back of the net.

The third wasn’t much better. Luis Palma found space down the left after Toby Sibbick was drawn towards a ball he was always unlikely to win, and the Celtic attacker was able to drive menacingly down the wing. When the summer signing played the ball into the box, Kye Rowles – Hearts’ last man – is drawn to it, leaving Furuhashi unmarked just a few yards out when the ball is shifted inside to him.

As for the fourth? Where to begin. Cochrane is caught out and is far too high up the park, essentially leaving Celtic with a 3v3 in Hearts’ box. Frankie Kent intercepts James Forrest’s initial cross but by this point, Celtic have the numerical advantage. The loose ball is snapped up by Greg Taylor in acres of space, and Hyeon-gyu Oh and Tomoki Iwata are queuing up at the back post. The only surprise was that Celtic required three bites at the cherry before Iwata rifled the ball home for 4-1.

The goals may have arrived via poor defensive positioning but there are other areas of concern, too. Hearts have never recorded more aggressive actions (tackles, interceptions, pressures and counter-pressures) under Naismith than they did on Sunday, but they had little success. Cochrane (eight), Rowles (five) and Cammy Devlin (nine) were the only Hearts players to record more than three combined tackles and interceptions. If no member of the triumvirate was attacking the ball then more often than not, Hearts failed to win it back. The purple line in the graph below shows Hearts’ aggressive actions per game during Naismith’s time in charge.

The other statistic that jumps out is Hearts’ PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action). This tells us how many passes the opposition average before being dispossessed and concerningly for Hearts, this figure was comfortably the highest it has been this season. Now, this is partly to be expected – Celtic are a possession-dominant team and play lots of short, simple passes – but it is hard to ignore the sheer scale of it. Take a look at the green line in the above graph for an idea of just how much Hearts allowed Rodgers’ team to play on Sunday. Up until the weekend, the opposition averaged 6.07 passes before losing the ball. Celtic averaged 12.03.

We have previously covered how Hearts have been over-performing at the back this season, and that a regression to the mean was inevitable at some stage. Sunday was an apt demonstration of those chickens coming home to roost.

READ MORE: Empty Hearts seats shows fan feeling - apathy, attendance low, tame boos

No risks, no chances

Hearts were poor off the ball against Celtic and concerningly, they weren’t much better on it. The team have faced accusations this season of being ponderous in possession at times and lacking incision, and you won’t find a clearer example of these deficiencies than Sunday’s defeat. The team’s work in the final third has been an area that has improved dramatically on Naismith’s watch – Hearts’ passing in and around the opposition box is some of the best in the division, even if the final ball has sometimes been lacking – but they couldn’t replicate that against the champions. By the time the full-time whistle rang out in Gorgie, they had mustered just six successful passes inside Celtic’s box out of 22 attempts: comfortably the lowest tally for either metric this season.

Hearts struggled to get up the park on Sunday, and it isn’t difficult to see why. Players simply weren’t taking enough risks on the ball and too many attacking moves were snuffed out before they could get going. Celtic don’t have too many weaknesses but they are vulnerable to pacey counter-attacks when they lose the ball, and Hearts were never direct enough. This is nothing new – in six of Hearts’ nine league games this season (including Sunday) they have failed to register a single shot from a counter-attack – but this caution was amplified in the defeat to Celtic as they couldn’t effectively build up, even when they had a bit of time.

This was, in part, due to some clever pressing from Celtic. With Cochrane returning from injury and perhaps a little off the pace, the left-back acted as the trigger point for Rodgers’ side. As soon as the defender received the ball, the indefatigable Maeda would harry after him and often force the Hearts man to turn back. Take a look at Celtic’s pressing map below, where we can see that Cochrane was clearly targeted.

Cochrane never looked all that comfortable in evading pressure for Maeda, and the Englishman’s reluctance to take risks caused attacks to break down. Of the 52 passes he attempted from open play, only five (10.4 per cent) were played into the final third. Sibbick, by way of comparison, had 37 passes with nine (24.3 per cent) played into the final third.

Below is a typical example from Sunday. Cochrane receives the ball in a good position in Celtic’s half and has a couple of options ahead of him. Alan Forrest has spotted a gap in between the centre-half and the right-back and is making a beeline into it, pointing out where he wants the ball to be played. It’s a relatively simple pass for Cochrane to make and although it doesn’t leave Forrest one-on-one with the goalie, it puts the winger in a dangerous position that could easily lead to a chance.

Cochrane decides against it though, opting for the simple short pass to Alex Lowry. The playmaker is quickly surrounded by green-and-white jerseys, and the only real option he has is to turn back and play the ball to Cochrane.

Maeda is bearing down on him so Cochrane doesn’t have long to decide his next move. Devlin is in oceans of space in the middle if his team-mate plays the ball quickly, but Cochrane doesn’t. He takes a touch, looks around, and eventually plays the ball back to Rowles.

Celtic can smell blood now. Furuhashi, Maeda, Hatate and Palma all step up to narrow the passing lanes available to Rowles, who can only play a sideways pass to Kent.

Hatate is charging forward and Kent doesn’t have long to make a decision. Celtic have ensured he can’t play it short so he does the only thing he can: hoof it up the park, more out of hope than expectation. Unsurprisingly, it doesn’t work.

This is just one example but you don’t have to look far to find others from the weekend’s defeat. All too often, Hearts picked the safe, easy route at the expense of a pass that could potentially carve Celtic open. Cochrane was probably the worst offender in this regard but by no means was the defender alone. Time and time again, Hearts were reluctant to pose their opponents some tricky questions – and the end result was they barely threatened Celtic’s goal with any real danger. Hearts didn't take anywhere near enough risks - and so there were very few rewards.